TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Stusek vs Borek Moravec 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
David Stusek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111127111214––
Borek Moravec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBorek Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Borek Moravec below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 74 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Borek Moravec at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 3–3 Borek Moravec Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stusek beat Moravec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:35What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1611 vs Moravec 1733
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Moravec 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 50% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +2 · Moravec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.73 / Moravec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13190104
Stusek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 30 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Moravec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 38 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back34% 15 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStusek3wins
AwayMoravec3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek60%3 of 5
AwayMoravecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek5Moravec1n = 6Stusek took 5 of 6
S2Stusek4Moravec2n = 6Stusek took 4 of 6
S3Stusek1Moravec5n = 6Moravec took 5 of 6
S4Stusek2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricStusekMoravecS − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.537.8+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 196 vs 270 / 46750%57.8%98 / 196 vs 270 / 467Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.73/Moravec 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 24 · 14:40D. Stusek4211119113B. Moravec26541161
WSep 6 · 05:40D. Stusek331111113B. Moravec206950
LAug 23 · 07:45D. Stusek3911561252B. Moravec529111110113
LJun 18 · 17:09D. Stusek321151061B. Moravec4391112113
LJun 18 · 15:40D. Stusek31811481B. Moravec3711411113
WFeb 10 · 14:40D. Stusek541114810113B. Moravec49512111292
D. Stusek10
WSep 24 · 16:10D. Stusek1.5711111113K. Kleprlik2.25116691WSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113LSep 24 · 14:10J. Pribyl1.44118118123D. Stusek2.63811811102LSep 22 · 21:08J. Travnicek1.83971111143D. Stusek1.83111195122LSep 22 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8081140J. Travnicek1.911113113WSep 22 · 18:45D. Stusek1.8012111112113T. Fojtik1.9114341482WSep 22 · 17:45D. Stusek1.2811119113D. Vitasek3.50971171WSep 16 · 20:38D. Stusek1.574111116113A. Cizek2.2511781832LSep 16 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8010111071A. Kanak1.9112612113LSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113
B. Moravec10
WSep 24 · 15:40B. Moravec1.8311611113J. Pribyl1.83711971LSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113WSep 24 · 13:40B. Moravec1.531111113K. Kleprlik2.388550WSep 22 · 16:55F. Chaloupka2.20118491B. Moravec1.6191111113LSep 22 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4461111111D. Skulina2.6311613133LSep 22 · 14:45B. Moravec1.8091191162J. Pribyl1.91116117113LSep 22 · 13:45B. Moravec1.537780F. Chaloupka2.381111113WSep 16 · 17:14B. Moravec1.53111178133D. Skulina2.38791111112WSep 16 · 15:45B. Moravec1.50871111113F. Chaloupka2.5011116882WSep 16 · 14:45B. Moravec1.44117119113B. Mrowetz2.6351191172
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.