TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Michal Snizek vs Jakub Dufek Jnr 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1158111141113118
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Snizek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Snizek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Snizek at 57.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Snizek 7–5 Jakub Dufek Jnr Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Snizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Snizek
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snizek 1385 vs Jnr 1290
Snizek
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snizek 80% vs Jnr 20%
Snizek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snizek 50% vs Jnr 30%
Snizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snizek +2 · Jnr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Snizek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnizek 1.67 / Jnr 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Snizek)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13202794
Snizek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 24)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 37 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Jnr2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog51% won 81 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back30% 22 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnizek7wins
AwayJnr3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSnizek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnizek75%6 of 8
AwayJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snizek8Jnr2n = 10Snizek took 8 of 10
S2Snizek5Jnr5n = 10split evenly
S3Snizek2Jnr8n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S4Snizek6Jnr3n = 9Snizek took 6 of 9
S5Snizek3Jnr1n = 4Snizek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnizekJnrS − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.339.7+3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnizekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 338 vs 247 / 48453.3%51%180 / 338 vs 247 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnizekSnizek 1.67/Jnr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Snizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 19:00M. Snizek4111118113J. Jnr27871111
WAug 16 · 14:30M. Snizek3711411113J. Jnr30511681
LJul 5 · 09:45M. Snizek4311713121J. Jnr4661115143
LJun 21 · 10:30M. Snizek29910100J. Jnr351112123
WJun 11 · 11:15M. Snizek50111113153J. Jnr429515131
WFeb 4 · 11:15M. Snizek511111711113J. Jnr4513611872
WJan 12 · 07:30M. Snizek43111110113J. Jnr33581281
WJan 6 · 10:30M. Snizek46117116113J. Jnr4891191182
WNov 2 · 14:15M. Snizek49111179113J. Jnr4285111172
LNov 2 · 13:00M. Snizek44115131142J. Jnr49611156113
M. Snizek10
WSep 27 · 10:30M. Snizek1.731111113M. Holub2.007990WSep 24 · 09:04J. Puk1.28119111272M. Snizek3.501311810113WSep 24 · 07:30M. Snizek2.10111168133V. Kral1.67951111112LSep 24 · 06:30M. Snizek3.50911861J. Puk1.2811711113WSep 24 · 05:30M. Snizek1.5011511113P. Moulis2.50211161WSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171LSep 13 · 14:30M. Snizek1.61116101162L. Krutina2.20811125103LSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 07:30M. Snizek2.20713731F. Husek1.61111111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 26 · 20:59M. Cmil1.73118114113J. Jnr2.0081171142LSep 26 · 20:00J. Jnr1.83711971M. Cmil1.8311411113WSep 26 · 18:30J. Seeman1.831671081J. Jnr1.83141112113LSep 26 · 18:00D. Sabuka1.611111113J. Jnr2.207990LSep 22 · 13:05P. Moulis2.101111113J. Jnr1.675820LSep 22 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5761112662P. Moulis2.251161011113WSep 22 · 10:30L. Krutina1.57611981J. Jnr2.2511911113LSep 22 · 10:00M. Vorel1.6151111113J. Jnr2.20117261LSep 19 · 13:15J. Jnr1.80131111592M. Cmil1.90156911113WSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis2.0511111110102J. Jnr1.65813812123
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