TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Dufek Jnr vs Pavel Moulis 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111161210611611
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 60.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 7–5 Pavel Moulis Pavel Moulis has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Jnr
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1335 vs Moulis 1239
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Moulis 20%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 60% vs Moulis 10%
Jnr
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Moulis -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.57 / Moulis 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jnr)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13172989
Jnr1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 89 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it73% 63 of 86
Moulis2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 20 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr7wins
AwayMoulis3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr100%4 of 4
AwayMoulis50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Moulis6n = 10Moulis took 6 of 10
S2Jnr6Moulis4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S3Jnr3Moulis7n = 10Moulis took 7 of 10
S4Jnr4Moulis1n = 5Jnr took 4 of 5
S5Jnr4Moulis0n = 4Jnr took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrMoulisJ − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.235.4+1.8per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 490 vs 191 / 44351.2%43.1%251 / 490 vs 191 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.57/Moulis 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 12:00J. Jnr53813812123P. Moulis5311111110102
WSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr331111113P. Moulis174490
WSep 15 · 09:30J. Jnr49119711113P. Moulis3931111952
LSep 13 · 20:35J. Jnr29910100P. Moulis351112123
WSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr381611113P. Moulis2614660
LSep 9 · 12:58J. Jnr186480P. Moulis331111113
LSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr184860P. Moulis331111113
WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr4111118113P. Moulis32971151
WAug 28 · 09:30J. Jnr46711611113P. Moulis4411711692
WAug 14 · 15:00J. Jnr474111110113P. Moulis4211491262
J. Jnr10
WSep 22 · 10:30L. Krutina1.57611981J. Jnr2.2511911113LSep 22 · 10:00M. Vorel1.6151111113J. Jnr2.20117261LSep 19 · 13:15J. Jnr1.80131111592M. Cmil1.90156911113WSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis2.0511111110102J. Jnr1.65813812123WSep 19 · 11:00L. Boura1.619890J. Jnr2.201111113WSep 19 · 09:30M. Cmil1.83119791J. Jnr1.8351111113LSep 17 · 12:58L. Krutina1.57111199113J. Jnr2.2585111152WSep 17 · 11:30J. Seeman1.731311101562J. Jnr2.0011131213113WSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 10:00J. Jnr2.10116761L. Krutina1.6791111113
P. Moulis10
LSep 22 · 11:00M. Vorel1.3011815113P. Moulis3.406111361LSep 22 · 09:30L. Krutina1.571211153P. Moulis2.25108130WSep 19 · 12:45P. Moulis3.0091151253L. Boura1.36113111012LSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis2.0511111110102J. Jnr1.65813812123LSep 19 · 10:30M. Cmil1.61116511113P. Moulis2.2091111882LSep 19 · 10:00L. Boura1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00118681LSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 12:00L. Krutina1.911111113P. Moulis1.807680LSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351
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