TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13159451
Played Sep 19Finished
Pavel Moulis
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911113511121051
Lukas Boura
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingPavel Moulis above · Lukas Boura below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-1
Point 78 set 5, 5-1
78 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Moulis 2–6 Lukas Boura Pavel Moulis has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Boura beat Moulis 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Boura)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boura form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoulis 3.00 / Boura 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Boura)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13159451
Moulis3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 19 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Boura1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite31% won 4 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMoulis2wins
AwayBoura6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderBoura leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoulis40%2 of 5
AwayBoura100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moulis5Boura3n = 8Moulis took 5 of 8
S2Moulis2Boura6n = 8Boura took 6 of 8
S3Moulis4Boura4n = 8split evenly
S4Moulis1Boura5n = 6Boura took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMoulisBouraM − BBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match34.038.1−4.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoulisBouraBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 440 vs 33 / 7443.2%44.6%190 / 440 vs 33 / 74Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BouraMoulis 3.00/Boura 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70%
Boura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moulis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 19 · 10:00P. Moulis33118681L. Boura4181111113
LAug 21 · 09:00P. Moulis208570L. Boura331111113
LAug 21 · 08:00P. Moulis27691111L. Boura3711114113
LJun 29 · 10:00P. Moulis361112761L. Boura4481411113
LJun 21 · 06:15P. Moulis32861171L. Boura4211119113
WJun 5 · 09:30P. Moulis341111123L. Boura2495100
LMay 1 · 11:00P. Moulis4611119872L. Boura46671111113
WApr 13 · 16:00P. Moulis4413911113L. Boura381111881
P. Moulis10
LSep 19 · 12:00P. Moulis2.0511111110102J. Jnr1.65813812123LSep 19 · 10:30M. Cmil1.61116511113P. Moulis2.2091111882LSep 19 · 10:00L. Boura1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00118681LSep 17 · 12:29P. Moulis1.731161111112J. Seeman2.00311138133LSep 17 · 12:00L. Krutina1.911111113P. Moulis1.807680LSep 17 · 11:00J. Jnr2.001111113P. Moulis1.734490LSep 17 · 09:30J. Seeman2.1041115113P. Moulis1.671191351LSep 15 · 12:38M. Obraz1.531111113P. Moulis2.388470WSep 15 · 11:30P. Moulis1.911481116113J. Blazek1.80161181492LSep 15 · 10:30P. Moulis2.25118111252M. Obraz1.57311714113
L. Boura10
LSep 19 · 11:30M. Cmil2.0012811113L. Boura1.731011651LSep 19 · 11:00L. Boura1.619890J. Jnr2.201111113WSep 19 · 10:00L. Boura1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00118681LAug 8 · 08:38L. Boura1.731112371P. Hlina2.0071411113WAug 8 · 07:30P. Hlina1.674760L. Boura2.101111113LAug 8 · 07:00L. Boura1.83811581J. Pina1.8311311113LAug 8 · 06:00L. Boura2.00591171P. Kotrbacek1.7311119113WJul 6 · 08:33K. Polak1.53911781L. Boura2.3811611113LJul 6 · 07:30L. Boura1.8312124111J. Puk1.83101411133LJul 6 · 06:28L. Boura1.739570J. Mejzlik2.001111113
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