TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Krzysztof Malcher 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116114811118––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 5–6 Krzysztof Malcher Piotr Gesiarz has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Gesiarz beat Malcher 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gesiarz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1290 vs Malcher 1299
Malcher
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 20% vs Malcher 40%
Malcher
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 30% vs Malcher 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -4 · Malcher +1
Gesiarz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gesiarz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.73 / Malcher 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gesiarz)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13200608
Gesiarz1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 69 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Malcher2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz5wins
AwayMalcher5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz80%4 of 5
AwayMalcher80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz5Malcher5n = 10split evenly
S2Gesiarz6Malcher4n = 10Gesiarz took 6 of 10
S3Gesiarz8Malcher2n = 10Gesiarz took 8 of 10
S4Gesiarz3Malcher4n = 7Malcher took 4 of 7
S5Gesiarz2Malcher4n = 6Malcher took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzMalcherG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.638.8+2.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 337 vs 40 / 11146.3%36%156 / 337 vs 40 / 111Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.133.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.73/Malcher 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 16:55P. Gesiarz49111179113K. Malcher4065111172
WSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz351311113K. Malcher2111640
LSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz47511119112K. Malcher47119311133
LAug 29 · 23:20P. Gesiarz4375111192K. Malcher43111164113
WAug 29 · 16:35P. Gesiarz341211113K. Malcher2210840
LAug 22 · 21:00P. Gesiarz26116271K. Malcher4071111113
WAug 22 · 16:35P. Gesiarz511121112153K. Malcher561311910132
WAug 16 · 00:35P. Gesiarz331111113K. Malcher132290
LAug 15 · 18:30P. Gesiarz51913111082K. Malcher541111912113
LJul 18 · 23:20P. Gesiarz4798111272K. Malcher521111910113
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 26 · 21:45P. Gesiarz1.9110101191J. Michalik1.8012127113LSep 26 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.441241281A. Szurgot2.63101114113LSep 26 · 18:30J. Slawomir2.101111412113P. Gesiarz1.6797111472LSep 26 · 17:45J. Michalik1.8371111113P. Gesiarz1.83115951WSep 26 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.73111179113K. Malcher2.0065111172WSep 26 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.251111113K. Kwiatkowski1.575650LSep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski1.6651111123P. Gesiarz2.101198101WSep 22 · 21:30M. Brunner2.05117121182P. Gesiarz1.65811146113LSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.821561131M. Baran1.7217117113
K. Malcher10
WSep 26 · 21:20J. Slawomir1.501271081K. Malcher2.50101112113LSep 26 · 20:30J. Michalik1.611111133K. Malcher2.2086110WSep 26 · 19:20K. Malcher1.361211113A. Szurgot3.0010860LSep 26 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski1.501111113K. Malcher2.506980LSep 26 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.73111179113K. Malcher2.0065111172LSep 26 · 15:25J. Slawomir1.57111169113K. Malcher2.2599111182WSep 20 · 02:10D. Maszczynski2.63105110K. Malcher1.441211133LSep 20 · 01:25G. Mucha1.501114123K. Malcher2.50812100LSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.731311113K. Malcher2.0011640LSep 19 · 22:35T. Kocik1.101111113K. Malcher6.505960
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