TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Michalik vs Piotr Gesiarz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115119115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 59.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 4–4 Piotr Gesiarz Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gesiarz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1329 vs Gesiarz 1359
Gesiarz
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 20% vs Gesiarz 60%
Gesiarz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 30% vs Gesiarz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Gesiarz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.83 / Gesiarz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13200876
Michalik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gesiarz1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMichalik4wins
AwayGesiarz4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik100%4 of 4
AwayGesiarz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik4Gesiarz4n = 8split evenly
S2Michalik5Gesiarz3n = 8Michalik took 5 of 8
S3Michalik5Gesiarz3n = 8Michalik took 5 of 8
S4Michalik0Gesiarz3n = 3Gesiarz took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricMichalikGesiarzM − GBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match32.432.8−0.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime555 / 1184 vs 156 / 33346.9%46.9%555 / 1184 vs 156 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.83/Gesiarz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 15 · 22:20J. Michalik361111143P. Gesiarz3099120
WAug 30 · 00:35J. Michalik351311113P. Gesiarz2711970
LAug 29 · 15:50J. Michalik147340P. Gesiarz331111113
LAug 8 · 23:45J. Michalik177730P. Gesiarz331111113
LAug 8 · 15:50J. Michalik48911111072P. Gesiarz45113812113
WJul 30 · 21:20J. Michalik331111113P. Gesiarz168440
LJul 30 · 15:25J. Michalik34811961P. Gesiarz3611311113
WJan 15 · 23:20J. Michalik42110119113P. Gesiarz4281181142
J. Michalik10
WSep 26 · 16:15J. Michalik1.83115118113J. Slawomir1.8371161142LSep 26 · 15:00J. Michalik1.30124391A. Szurgot3.40101111113LSep 25 · 02:10J. Skorupa1.8011117113J. Michalik1.91871151LSep 25 · 01:25M. Karpiuk1.67111167113J. Michalik2.1055111162LSep 24 · 23:20A. Fomin1.73991215113J. Michalik2.001111101342LSep 24 · 22:35M. Guzik1.20611611113J. Michalik4.3311611792LSep 24 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski1.731511116113J. Michalik2.00131341182WSep 24 · 20:05J. Skorupa2.101091481J. Michalik1.67121112113WSep 24 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.251091491J. Michalik1.33121112113LSep 24 · 17:20A. Fomin1.571251111123J. Michalik2.25141188102
P. Gesiarz10
LSep 26 · 18:30J. Slawomir2.101111412113P. Gesiarz1.6797111472WSep 26 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.73111179113K. Malcher2.0065111172WSep 26 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.251111113K. Kwiatkowski1.575650LSep 22 · 22:20K. Kwiatkowski1.6651111123P. Gesiarz2.101198101WSep 22 · 21:30M. Brunner2.05117121182P. Gesiarz1.65811146113LSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.831388111M. Karpiuk1.83111111133LSep 22 · 19:10P. Gesiarz1.821561131M. Baran1.7217117113WSep 22 · 18:20K. Delikatny1.832860P. Gesiarz1.721111113LSep 21 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.10951161A. Kubiak1.6511113113LSep 21 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.851211113P. Gesiarz1.8010780
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