TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Hons vs Jan Lovl 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81113119111012––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched — 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jan Lovl at 67.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 6–20 Jan Lovl David Hons has won 6 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-20 in 26
Lovl
Correct
gap of 14 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1550 vs Lovl 1585
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 20% vs Lovl 60%
Lovl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 40% vs Lovl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +1 · Lovl +3
Lovl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 2.20 / Lovl 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Lovl)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13196604
Hons2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 59 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Lovl1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 23)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 71 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons2wins
AwayLovl8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons33.3%1 of 3
AwayLovl85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S2Hons6Lovl4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Hons2Lovl8n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S4Hons5Lovl3n = 8Hons took 5 of 8
S5Hons0Lovl4n = 4Lovl took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsLovlH − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.642.2−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 520 vs 184 / 35550.8%51.8%264 / 520 vs 184 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlHons 2.20/Lovl 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 06:35D. Hons408139101J. Lovl45111111123
LSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons218940J. Lovl331111113
WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons4291111113J. Lovl31116681
LAug 23 · 16:35D. Hons44111111472J. Lovl48761311113
LAug 2 · 15:35D. Hons187740J. Lovl331111113
LAug 1 · 12:05D. Hons3912661142J. Lovl521011119113
LJul 16 · 11:35D. Hons4077111142J. Lovl49111188113
LJun 30 · 17:40D. Hons398118121J. Lovl4011411143
WJun 30 · 16:05D. Hons3911116113J. Lovl33691171
LJun 27 · 08:35D. Hons5491371692J. Lovl5811111114113
D. Hons10
WSep 26 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.5061111832D. Hons1.50116611113WSep 23 · 17:10T. Motacek1.83451171D. Hons1.8311119113LSep 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115681LSep 23 · 15:35M. Chmelicek2.381111123D. Hons1.5399100LSep 23 · 14:35D. Hons1.73119111062T. Motacek2.00611512113LSep 20 · 17:14D. Hons1.6711551182J. Martin2.10511117113LSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons2.008940J. Lovl1.731111113LSep 20 · 15:05D. Hons2.2510111181R. Fnukal1.5712139113WSep 20 · 14:05D. Hons1.73311118123J. Martin2.00115711102WSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons1.80119511143T. Motacek1.91711118122
J. Lovl10
LSep 26 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.911111113J. Lovl1.808430WSep 23 · 09:33J. Lovl1.73611411113R. Neterda2.0011911742WSep 23 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.833500J. Lovl1.831111113WSep 23 · 07:35M. Flesar3.251071291J. Lovl1.33121110113LSep 23 · 06:35J. Lovl1.671121161R. Neterda2.1013116113LSep 20 · 17:45R. Fnukal1.53117811113J. Lovl2.3861111892WSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons2.008940J. Lovl1.731111113WSep 20 · 15:35J. Martin2.7562100J. Lovl1.401111123LSep 20 · 14:35J. Lovl2.501111612132R. Fnukal1.50881114153LSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153
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