TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Lukasz Oracz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117115118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 31–26 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 26 of their 57 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vincenec beat Oracz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:26What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-26 in 57
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 5 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1365 vs Oracz 1362
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Oracz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 60% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec -1 · Oracz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.83 / Oracz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vincenec)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13194754
Vincenec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Oracz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec6wins
AwayOracz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec50%2 of 4
AwayOracz33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec7Oracz3n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec6Oracz4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec3Oracz4n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5Vincenec2Oracz1n = 3Vincenec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecOraczV − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.3+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime690 / 1504 vs 844 / 153445.9%55%690 / 1504 vs 844 / 1534Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecVincenec 1.83/Oracz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 21:00O. Vincenec3961111113L. Oracz31117581
WSep 25 · 19:20O. Vincenec51911119113L. Oracz4011671152
WSep 18 · 12:15O. Vincenec341112113L. Oracz2891090
LSep 12 · 01:25O. Vincenec4411791162L. Oracz45511117113
WSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec4171111123L. Oracz361187101
LAug 27 · 11:25O. Vincenec34811781L. Oracz4111811113
WAug 27 · 05:15O. Vincenec50811119113L. Oracz4011561172
LAug 17 · 03:05O. Vincenec391197121L. Oracz4371111143
LAug 16 · 21:05O. Vincenec237790L. Oracz331111113
WAug 16 · 03:05O. Vincenec341112113L. Oracz2671090
O. Vincenec10
LSep 25 · 20:30O. Sokolowski1.8311125163O. Vincenec1.8351011141WSep 25 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.83911119113L. Oracz1.8311671152WSep 25 · 18:10W. Jozala2.10125881O. Vincenec1.67101111113LSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192LSep 25 · 15:25K. Juszczyk1.801711113O. Vincenec1.9115260WSep 23 · 17:05M. Rus2.801171011102O. Vincenec1.37611127123WSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782WSep 23 · 14:45R. Gajda1.9011311782O. Vincenec1.80611811113WSep 23 · 13:30B. Madej1.709711101O. Vincenec1.9511115123LSep 23 · 11:55R. Skotniczny1.571111113O. Vincenec2.209840
L. Oracz10
LSep 25 · 20:05M. Baron2.50611119113L. Oracz1.5011571182LSep 25 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.83911119113L. Oracz1.8311671152WSep 25 · 17:20K. Juszczyk1.50118561L. Oracz2.5051111113LSep 25 · 16:35W. Jozala1.73111156113L. Oracz2.0079111192WSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.501091171L. Oracz1.5012117113WSep 24 · 14:20M. Jozefiak2.25811120L. Oracz1.571113143WSep 24 · 13:30W. Urban1.73761381L. Oracz2.00111111113WSep 24 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.251161161L. Oracz1.5713114113LSep 24 · 10:35O. Jadach1.571111113L. Oracz2.257980WSep 24 · 09:00I. Szymanski4.50121111972L. Oracz1.171021311113
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