TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Schaniel vs Lukasz Oracz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113611114611––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:42 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 57.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 18–19 Lukasz Oracz Krzysztof Schaniel has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:42What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-19 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1339 vs Oracz 1383
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 80% vs Oracz 60%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 50% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +1 · Oracz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 2.25 / Oracz 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Oracz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13183286
Schaniel2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 175 of 415
Down 0–1, comes back29% 64 of 222
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 119
Oracz1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 369 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 204 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it82% 288 of 351
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel5wins
AwayOracz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel100%3 of 3
AwayOracz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Schaniel4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Schaniel5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S4Schaniel5Oracz4n = 9Schaniel took 5 of 9
S5Schaniel3Oracz1n = 4Schaniel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielOraczS − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.4−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1729 vs 839 / 152549.7%55%860 / 1729 vs 839 / 1525Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSchaniel 2.25/Oracz 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel46114911113L. Oracz4371111682
WSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel4111118113L. Oracz28641171
LAug 27 · 13:30K. Schaniel44712101142L. Oracz501110126113
WAug 27 · 07:20K. Schaniel3851111113L. Oracz29117831
WAug 20 · 09:25K. Schaniel41114114113L. Oracz3861151152
LAug 20 · 03:25K. Schaniel35981171L. Oracz4211119113
LJul 17 · 09:25K. Schaniel33771181L. Oracz4011117113
LJul 17 · 03:25K. Schaniel27512461L. Oracz43111011113
LJul 6 · 04:20K. Schaniel2568110L. Oracz351111133
WJul 5 · 18:45K. Schaniel521091111113L. Oracz4612118962
K. Schaniel10
LSep 24 · 12:40K. Schaniel1.8011511642M. Jozefiak1.91911811113WSep 24 · 10:10I. Szymanski3.0011111191K. Schaniel1.3613139113LSep 24 · 09:25K. Schaniel1.6171191192W. Urban2.20118119113WSep 24 · 07:45K. Schaniel1.36111111133I. Szymanski3.001376111WSep 24 · 06:30K. Schaniel—11117113M. Jozefiak—831161WSep 24 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.201111107113L. Oracz1.6169121142LSep 24 · 04:10O. Jadach1.5081112113K. Schaniel2.501191081LSep 24 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310490W. Urban2.001211113WSep 17 · 16:20W. Glanowski2.232970K. Schaniel1.531111113LSep 17 · 15:30W. Buczynski2.2211811113K. Schaniel1.54511771
L. Oracz10
LSep 24 · 10:35O. Jadach1.571111113L. Oracz2.257980WSep 24 · 09:00I. Szymanski4.50121111972L. Oracz1.171021311113WSep 24 · 08:10M. Jozefiak—9770L. Oracz—1111113WSep 24 · 07:20W. Urban1.9112913121L. Oracz1.80101115143LSep 24 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.201111107113L. Oracz1.6169121142WSep 24 · 04:30I. Szymanski4.334980L. Oracz1.201111113WSep 24 · 03:00O. Jadach1.61691131L. Oracz2.2011116113WSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.103660L. Oracz1.671111113LSep 23 · 01:25L. Oracz1.619370M. Adamus2.201111113LSep 23 · 24:10G. Marud1.831111113L. Oracz1.834640
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