TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Schaniel vs Michal Jozefiak 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511118611411
Michal Jozefiak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–6Last 8Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:28 and never touched — 50.0% is still 50.0%
Final score unavailable — not graded hereEven read — no favourite
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Pick
NoneHow it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Michal Jozefiak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 87 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 50.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 1–0 Michal Jozefiak Michal Jozefiak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Schaniel beat Jozefiak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1340 vs Jozefiak 1109
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 60% vs Jozefiak 0%
Schaniel
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 50% vs Jozefiak 25%
Schaniel
Wrong
25pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -1 · Jozefiak -5
Jozefiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 50% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jozefiak form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.80 / Jozefiak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schaniel)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13187529
Schaniel1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 193 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it90% 96 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it76% 147 of 193
Jozefiak1.91
25%won 2 of 8 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 4 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSchaniel1wins
AwayJozefiak0wins
Schaniel leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSchanielJozefiakS − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.028.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielJozefiakBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1729 vs 2 / 849.7%25%860 / 1729 vs 2 / 8Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.80/Jozefiak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jozefiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 24 · 06:30K. Schaniel4011117113M. Jozefiak28831161
K. Schaniel10
LSep 24 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.251161161L. Oracz1.5713114113WSep 24 · 10:10I. Szymanski3.0011111191K. Schaniel1.3613139113LSep 24 · 09:25K. Schaniel1.6171191192W. Urban2.20118119113WSep 24 · 07:45K. Schaniel1.36111111133I. Szymanski3.001376111WSep 24 · 06:30K. Schaniel—11117113M. Jozefiak—831161WSep 24 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.201111107113L. Oracz1.6169121142LSep 24 · 04:10O. Jadach1.5081112113K. Schaniel2.501191081LSep 24 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310490W. Urban2.001211113WSep 17 · 16:20W. Glanowski2.232970K. Schaniel1.531111113LSep 17 · 15:30W. Buczynski2.2211811113K. Schaniel1.54511771
M. Jozefiak8
LSep 24 · 11:50I. Szymanski2.38117129113M. Jozefiak1.53811101192LSep 24 · 11:00M. Jozefiak1.6711511982W. Urban2.10811711113LSep 24 · 09:50M. Jozefiak1.831110111192O. Jadach1.83612139113LSep 24 · 08:10M. Jozefiak—9770L. Oracz—1111113LSep 24 · 06:30K. Schaniel—11117113M. Jozefiak—831161WSep 24 · 05:40O. Jadach—111070M. Jozefiak—1312113WSep 24 · 04:55M. Jozefiak—111110113W. Urban—981291LSep 24 · 03:50M. Jozefiak—961161I. Szymanski—11116113
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