TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Schaniel vs Wojciech Urban 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118911119911
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:42 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 58.5%
97 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 58–42 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 42 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
58-42 in 100
Schaniel
Wrong
gap of 16 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1358 vs Urban 1363
Urban
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 80% vs Urban 60%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 60% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +3 · Urban +1
Schaniel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Schaniel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.61 / Urban 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Schaniel)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13183325
Schaniel1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 193 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it90% 96 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it76% 147 of 193
Urban2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 214 of 525
Down 0–1, comes back19% 54 of 287
Down 0–2, comes back6% 11 of 172
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel8wins
AwayUrban2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel83.3%5 of 6
AwayUrban25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel6Urban4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Schaniel6Urban4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S3Schaniel5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S4Schaniel7Urban2n = 9Schaniel took 7 of 9
S5Schaniel3Urban1n = 4Schaniel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielUrbanS − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.935.7+6.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1728 vs 787 / 166849.8%47.2%860 / 1728 vs 787 / 1668Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.61/Urban 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 24:50K. Schaniel351113113W. Urban2171130
WAug 24 · 17:30K. Schaniel3961111113W. Urban27114391
WAug 24 · 01:10K. Schaniel3911611113W. Urban28611561
WAug 23 · 17:30K. Schaniel44111111113W. Urban34813941
LAug 15 · 07:10K. Schaniel321141071W. Urban4171112113
WAug 11 · 02:10K. Schaniel42411511113W. Urban4111611852
LAug 10 · 23:05K. Schaniel4591111862W. Urban50119811113
WAug 10 · 02:45K. Schaniel501111611113W. Urban3913311572
WAug 9 · 23:05K. Schaniel4213117113W. Urban341151171
WJul 27 · 01:10K. Schaniel51119911113W. Urban4281111482
K. Schaniel10
WSep 24 · 10:10I. Szymanski3.0011111191K. Schaniel1.3613139113WSep 24 · 07:45K. Schaniel1.36111111133I. Szymanski3.001376111WSep 24 · 06:30K. Schaniel—11117113M. Jozefiak—831161WSep 24 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.201111107113L. Oracz1.6169121142LSep 24 · 04:10O. Jadach1.5081112113K. Schaniel2.501191081LSep 24 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310490W. Urban2.001211113WSep 17 · 16:20W. Glanowski2.232970K. Schaniel1.531111113LSep 17 · 15:30W. Buczynski2.2211811113K. Schaniel1.54511771LSep 17 · 14:45K. Schaniel1.809590O. Sokolowski1.911111113LSep 17 · 13:10K. Schaniel1.8058131342M. Baron1.8311111111113
W. Urban10
WSep 24 · 11:00M. Jozefiak1.6711511982W. Urban2.10811711113WSep 24 · 08:35O. Jadach1.911051161W. Urban1.8012118113LSep 24 · 07:20W. Urban1.9112913121L. Oracz1.80101115143WSep 24 · 06:05I. Szymanski2.751110871W. Urban1.4061211113LSep 24 · 04:55M. Jozefiak—111110113W. Urban—981291WSep 24 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310490W. Urban2.001211113WSep 23 · 14:40W. Urban2.001111128113S. Szostok1.7335141192WSep 23 · 13:05W. Urban1.3011118153P. Slosarczyk3.408411131LSep 23 · 11:50W. Urban1.91101090P. Przewlocki1.801212113WSep 23 · 10:10W. Urban2.00981111123P. Polok1.73111117102
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