TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Wojciech Urban vs Pawel Polok 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9118111111171210
Pawel Polok
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 91 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Pawel Polok at 56.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 3–2 Pawel Polok Pawel Polok has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Polok beat Urban 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1336 vs Polok 1469
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 20% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Polok 70%
Polok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -2 · Polok +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Polok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.00 / Polok 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Polok)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13177298
Urban2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 212 of 520
Down 0–1, comes back19% 53 of 284
Down 0–2, comes back6% 10 of 169
Polok1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 101 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeUrban3wins
AwayPolok2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderUrban leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban75%3 of 4
AwayPolokn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Polok1n = 5Urban took 4 of 5
S2Urban2Polok3n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S3Urban3Polok2n = 5Urban took 3 of 5
S4Urban4Polok0n = 4Urban took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricUrbanPolokU − PBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match41.034.6+6.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1659 vs 143 / 22147.1%64.7%781 / 1659 vs 143 / 221Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokUrban 2.00/Polok 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 23 · 07:45W. Urban4689111172P. Polok46111149113
WAug 31 · 05:05W. Urban331111113P. Polok185850
WAug 30 · 20:45W. Urban4111811113P. Polok25511631
WAug 4 · 05:05W. Urban4111118113P. Polok32871161
LAug 3 · 20:45W. Urban44117312112P. Polok527111110133
W. Urban10
LSep 23 · 09:00W. Urban2.3812119682K. Slawinski1.531091111113LSep 23 · 07:45P. Polok1.73111149113W. Urban2.0089111172WSep 23 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk3.0055120W. Urban1.361111143LSep 23 · 06:05W. Urban2.3871111892S. Szostok1.53115311113LSep 23 · 04:30W. Urban2.638911101K. Slawinski1.4411118123WSep 23 · 03:50P. Przewlocki1.911281111112W. Urban1.801011138133LSep 22 · 14:40P. Brozek1.501211113W. Urban2.5010690WSep 22 · 13:30W. Urban1.57711911123P. Przewlocki2.25118115102WSep 22 · 12:15M. Skuril2.001113681W. Urban1.7291511113WSep 22 · 11:00R. Niemiec1.8391111882W. Urban1.83117911113
P. Polok10
WSep 23 · 09:25P. Polok1.67131112113S. Szostok2.101191491WSep 23 · 07:45P. Polok1.73111149113W. Urban2.0089111172LSep 23 · 06:30P. Polok1.61116119112P. Przewlocki2.20311611133WSep 23 · 05:15P. Polok1.911111113K. Slawinski1.808170WSep 23 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.2547100P. Polok1.571111123LSep 23 · 03:25P. Polok1.67581151S. Szostok2.1011116113WSep 20 · 14:20P. Polok1.731111113W. Wojtaszczyk2.009650LSep 20 · 12:40J. Jesiek3.751111113P. Polok1.259670WSep 20 · 11:50M. Skuril3.059930P. Polok1.241111113WSep 20 · 11:00P. Polok1.339111011113W. Buczynski3.2511612442
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Sep 23 · 11:50W. Urban1.91P. Przewlocki1.80—Sep 23 · 13:05W. Urban1.30P. Slosarczyk3.40—Sep 23 · 14:40W. Urban2.00S. Szostok1.73—Sep 24 · 03:25W. Urban2.20K. Schaniel1.61—Sep 24 · 06:05W. Urban1.36I. Szymanski3.00—Sep 24 · 07:20W. Urban1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 24 · 08:35W. Urban1.80O. Jadach1.91—Sep 24 · 09:25W. Urban2.20K. Schaniel1.61—Sep 24 · 12:15W. Urban1.80O. Jadach1.91—Sep 24 · 13:30W. Urban1.91L. Oracz1.80—
P. Polok
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