TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Lukasz Oracz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611611––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 48 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 12–18 Lukasz Oracz Jakub Nowak has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Oracz beat Nowak 1-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Oracz
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1250 vs Oracz 1321
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Oracz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Oracz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak +1 · Oracz -3
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.10 / Oracz 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Oracz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13177215
Nowak2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog36% won 240 of 660
Down 0–1, comes back22% 85 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 230
Oracz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite63% won 372 of 587
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it82% 289 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayOracz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak75%3 of 4
AwayOracz100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Nowak4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Nowak3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Nowak1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakOraczN − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.835.9−5.1per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1756 vs 833 / 151738.7%54.9%679 / 1756 vs 833 / 1517Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczNowak 2.10/Oracz 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak153660L. Oracz331111113
LSep 9 · 02:35J. Nowak2358100L. Oracz341111123
LSep 8 · 18:10J. Nowak4111851162L. Oracz49811118113
WJul 24 · 24:00J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz216690
LJul 15 · 04:00J. Nowak174490L. Oracz331111113
LJul 15 · 24:00J. Nowak36711991L. Oracz4011711113
WJul 12 · 17:05J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz228770
LJul 12 · 08:45J. Nowak397126141L. Oracz48111011163
WJul 5 · 07:10J. Nowak471110114113L. Oracz4291261142
LJun 11 · 21:10J. Nowak2447130L. Oracz371111153
J. Nowak10
WSep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.209111112113G. Marud1.6111881492LSep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.258870G. Jurowicz1.571111113LSep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.7591211612M. Koczyba1.401110611113LSep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.0068100M. Adamus1.731111123WSep 22 · 19:40G. Jurowicz1.6191191192J. Nowak2.20119114113LSep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73111112113J. Nowak2.00871421LSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8063WSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 21 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.805950J. Nowak1.901111113
L. Oracz10
LSep 23 · 01:25L. Oracz1.619370M. Adamus2.201111113LSep 23 · 24:10G. Marud1.831111113L. Oracz1.834640LSep 22 · 22:55G. Jurowicz2.201111113L. Oracz1.616650WSep 22 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.7366111152L. Oracz2.00111187113WSep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.9179111172L. Oracz1.80111193113LSep 22 · 19:20L. Oracz1.73137611132M. Adamus2.001111115153WSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8063WSep 22 · 16:55M. Koczyba1.807911161L. Oracz1.9111119183WSep 22 · 15:25G. Jurowicz2.251021141L. Oracz1.5712118113LSep 18 · 20:30L. Oracz1.50881161J. Kaczmarek2.5011118113
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