TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Jozefiak vs Lukasz Oracz 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Jozefiak
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–6Last 9Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81111131214––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:09 and never touched — 50.0% is still 50.0%
Final score unavailable — not graded hereEven read — no favourite
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Pick
NoneHow it is goingMichal Jozefiak above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 69 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Michal Jozefiak at 50.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Michal Jozefiak 0–1 Lukasz Oracz Michal Jozefiak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Jozefiak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:09What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jozefiak 1174 vs Oracz 1416
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 243 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jozefiak 20% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jozefiak 33% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Correct
47pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jozefiak +1 · Oracz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 50% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJozefiak 2.25 / Oracz 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Oracz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13187482
Jozefiak2.25
33%won 3 of 9 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Oracz1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 369 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 204 of 211
Up 1–0, closes it82% 288 of 351
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJozefiak0wins
AwayOracz1wins
Oracz leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricJozefiakOraczJ − OBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match23.033.0−10.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJozefiakOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 9 vs 841 / 152733.3%55.1%3 / 9 vs 841 / 1527Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczJozefiak 2.25/Oracz 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 24 · 08:10M. Jozefiak239770L. Oracz331111113
M. Jozefiak9
WSep 24 · 12:40K. Schaniel1.8011511642M. Jozefiak1.91911811113LSep 24 · 11:50I. Szymanski2.38117129113M. Jozefiak1.53811101192LSep 24 · 11:00M. Jozefiak1.6711511982W. Urban2.10811711113LSep 24 · 09:50M. Jozefiak1.831110111192O. Jadach1.83612139113LSep 24 · 08:10M. Jozefiak—9770L. Oracz—1111113LSep 24 · 06:30K. Schaniel—11117113M. Jozefiak—831161WSep 24 · 05:40O. Jadach—111070M. Jozefiak—1312113WSep 24 · 04:55M. Jozefiak—111110113W. Urban—981291LSep 24 · 03:50M. Jozefiak—961161I. Szymanski—11116113
L. Oracz10
WSep 24 · 13:30W. Urban1.73761381L. Oracz2.00111111113WSep 24 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.251161161L. Oracz1.5713114113LSep 24 · 10:35O. Jadach1.571111113L. Oracz2.257980WSep 24 · 09:00I. Szymanski4.50121111972L. Oracz1.171021311113WSep 24 · 08:10M. Jozefiak—9770L. Oracz—1111113WSep 24 · 07:20W. Urban1.9112913121L. Oracz1.80101115143LSep 24 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.201111107113L. Oracz1.6169121142WSep 24 · 04:30I. Szymanski4.334980L. Oracz1.201111113WSep 24 · 03:00O. Jadach1.61691131L. Oracz2.2011116113WSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.103660L. Oracz1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Jozefiak
Nothing scheduled
L. Oracz
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