TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Wojciech Urban vs Lukasz Oracz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111311811––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 9–18 Lukasz Oracz Wojciech Urban has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Urban 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:51What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-18 in 27
Oracz
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1391 vs Oracz 1382
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 70% vs Oracz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.73 / Oracz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urban)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13183332
Urban1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 168 of 291
Up 2–0, closes it97% 68 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it74% 120 of 163
Oracz2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 123 of 289
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban4wins
AwayOracz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban75%3 of 4
AwayOracz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Urban5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Urban4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Urban2Oracz3n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanOraczU − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.935.90.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime789 / 1671 vs 840 / 152647.2%55.1%789 / 1671 vs 840 / 1526Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.73/Oracz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 07:20W. Urban4612913121L. Oracz50101115143
LSep 18 · 09:50W. Urban45611125112L. Oracz531181011133
WSep 10 · 14:40W. Urban331111113L. Oracz268990
LSep 10 · 06:10W. Urban381011891L. Oracz3812411113
LAug 17 · 23:50W. Urban31137110L. Oracz391511133
WAug 17 · 17:55W. Urban474111011113L. Oracz3911412932
WAug 16 · 23:55W. Urban331111113L. Oracz174760
LAug 16 · 17:55W. Urban2275100L. Oracz341111123
WAug 5 · 05:10W. Urban3811511113L. Oracz28511841
LAug 3 · 05:05W. Urban2611870L. Oracz351311113
W. Urban10
WSep 24 · 14:40I. Szymanski3.25851151W. Urban1.3311115113LSep 24 · 12:15O. Jadach1.6191111113W. Urban2.20116791WSep 24 · 11:00M. Jozefiak1.6711511982W. Urban2.10811711113WSep 24 · 09:25K. Schaniel1.6171191192W. Urban2.20118119113WSep 24 · 08:35O. Jadach1.911051161W. Urban1.8012118113LSep 24 · 07:20W. Urban1.9112913121L. Oracz1.80101115143WSep 24 · 06:05I. Szymanski3.401110871W. Urban1.3061211113LSep 24 · 04:55M. Jozefiak—111110113W. Urban—981291WSep 24 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310490W. Urban2.001211113WSep 23 · 14:40W. Urban2.001111128113S. Szostok1.7335141192
L. Oracz10
WSep 24 · 14:20M. Jozefiak2.25811120L. Oracz1.571113143WSep 24 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.251161161L. Oracz1.5713114113LSep 24 · 10:35O. Jadach1.571111113L. Oracz2.257980WSep 24 · 09:00I. Szymanski4.50121111972L. Oracz1.171021311113WSep 24 · 08:10M. Jozefiak—9770L. Oracz—1111113WSep 24 · 07:20W. Urban1.9112913121L. Oracz1.80101115143LSep 24 · 05:15K. Schaniel2.201111107113L. Oracz1.6169121142WSep 24 · 04:30I. Szymanski4.334980L. Oracz1.201111113WSep 24 · 03:00O. Jadach1.61691131L. Oracz2.2011116113WSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.103660L. Oracz1.671111113
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