TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Oliver Vincenec 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11512105111614––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 84 set 4, 16-14 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 5–5 Oliver Vincenec Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vincenec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1310 vs Vincenec 1353
Vincenec
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 40% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 50% vs Vincenec 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski +2 · Vincenec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 1.83 / Vincenec 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13194773
Sokolowski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Vincenec1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokolowski5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski100%5 of 5
AwayVincenec100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S2Sokolowski4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Sokolowski5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S4Sokolowski2Vincenec5n = 7Vincenec took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokolowskiVincenecS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.138.0−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 586 vs 689 / 150243.3%45.9%254 / 586 vs 689 / 1502Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecSokolowski 1.83/Vincenec 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski35911871O. Vincenec4211911113
WJul 30 · 11:00O. Sokolowski43111011113O. Vincenec34712871
WJul 30 · 04:55O. Sokolowski51128118123O. Vincenec441011211102
LApr 12 · 13:30O. Sokolowski31511781O. Vincenec3911611113
WApr 12 · 07:30O. Sokolowski331111113O. Vincenec259880
WMar 7 · 05:50O. Sokolowski5811101313113O. Vincenec47612111532
LDec 21 · 18:05O. Sokolowski2310850O. Vincenec341211113
WDec 21 · 09:45O. Sokolowski44111012113O. Vincenec387121091
LDec 20 · 18:05O. Sokolowski143650O. Vincenec331111113
LDec 20 · 09:45O. Sokolowski3910117111O. Vincenec4412811133
O. Sokolowski10
WSep 25 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.5091111113W. Jozala2.50119471WSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872LSep 25 · 16:15O. Sokolowski2.385540K. Juszczyk1.531111113LSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.501091171L. Oracz1.5012117113LSep 24 · 08:20A. Burkacki2.051091211113O. Sokolowski1.65121110832WSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113WSep 24 · 05:35M. Lebek1.6011813101O. Sokolowski2.1581115123LSep 24 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.4211118113O. Sokolowski2.55241151LSep 24 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek1.761112113O. Sokolowski1.9061060WSep 24 · 02:20K. Hetnar1.671112281O. Sokolowski2.0981411113
O. Vincenec10
WSep 25 · 21:00O. Vincenec1.8361111113L. Oracz1.83117581WSep 25 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.83911119113L. Oracz1.8311671152WSep 25 · 18:10W. Jozala2.10125881O. Vincenec1.67101111113LSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192LSep 25 · 15:25K. Juszczyk1.801711113O. Vincenec1.9115260WSep 23 · 17:05M. Rus2.801171011102O. Vincenec1.37611127123WSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782WSep 23 · 14:45R. Gajda1.9011311782O. Vincenec1.80611811113WSep 23 · 13:30B. Madej1.709711101O. Vincenec1.9511115123LSep 23 · 11:55R. Skotniczny1.571111113O. Vincenec2.209840
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