TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliwier Sokolowski vs Mariusz Baron 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411116911118117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliwier Sokolowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oliwier Sokolowski at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 3–5 Mariusz Baron Oliwier Sokolowski has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sokolowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Baron
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1289 vs Baron 1304
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski -3 · Baron +2
Sokolowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sokolowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 1.73 / Baron 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sokolowski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13194976
Sokolowski1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 87 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 66 of 80
Baron2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 190 of 475
Down 0–1, comes back25% 64 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSokolowski3wins
AwayBaron5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderBaron leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaron80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski3Baron5n = 8Baron took 5 of 8
S2Sokolowski3Baron5n = 8Baron took 5 of 8
S3Sokolowski4Baron4n = 8split evenly
S4Sokolowski3Baron2n = 5Sokolowski took 3 of 5
S5Sokolowski1Baron2n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricSokolowskiBaronS − BBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match36.041.6−5.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 584 vs 873 / 182643.2%47.8%252 / 584 vs 873 / 1826Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolowskiSokolowski 1.73/Baron 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sokolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 17 · 15:55O. Sokolowski50961212113M. Baron501111101082
LSep 17 · 09:55O. Sokolowski2251070M. Baron341112113
LSep 9 · 23:35O. Sokolowski408913101M. Baron45111111123
LSep 4 · 20:30O. Sokolowski3711711352M. Baron44411711113
LAug 13 · 08:45O. Sokolowski178540M. Baron331111113
WAug 13 · 00:25O. Sokolowski361312113M. Baron30111090
LAug 11 · 12:45O. Sokolowski42311151122M. Baron57119179113
WAug 11 · 10:20O. Sokolowski4411117153M. Baron409711131
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 25 · 16:15O. Sokolowski2.385540K. Juszczyk1.531111113LSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.501091171L. Oracz1.5012117113LSep 24 · 08:20A. Burkacki2.051091211113O. Sokolowski1.65121110832WSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113WSep 24 · 05:35M. Lebek1.6011813101O. Sokolowski2.1581115123LSep 24 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.4211118113O. Sokolowski2.55241151LSep 24 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek1.761112113O. Sokolowski1.9061060WSep 24 · 02:20K. Hetnar1.671112281O. Sokolowski2.0981411113LSep 24 · 01:35J. Nowak2.2512812123O. Sokolowski1.54101110101LSep 23 · 23:35M. Lebek1.501211711113O. Sokolowski2.40105111392
M. Baron10
LSep 25 · 18:30K. Juszczyk1.6711129113M. Baron2.109101181WSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192WSep 25 · 15:50M. Baron1.571111113W. Jozala2.256380LSep 23 · 16:40B. Madej2.55991411113M. Baron1.42111112892LSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782LSep 23 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.731111113M. Baron1.987850LSep 23 · 13:10R. Gajda1.93931111113M. Baron1.7811118552WSep 23 · 11:30M. Rus2.759490M. Baron1.401111113WSep 23 · 10:40B. Madej2.4511691492M. Baron1.507111112113LSep 23 · 09:55O. Vincenec2.1911116133M. Baron1.538911111
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