TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maksymilian Rus vs Oliver Vincenec 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
2.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11671110121171012
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.37
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched — 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
11671110121171012
H2H Maksymilian Rus 4–3 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Rus beat Vincenec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (67%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rus 1160 vs Vincenec 1364
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 20% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 20% vs Vincenec 50%
Vincenec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus -1 · Vincenec +3
Vincenec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Vincenec) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 2.80 / Vincenec 1.37
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Vincenec)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13184565
Rus2.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 75 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 100
Vincenec1.37
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it86% 60 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it74% 99 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRus4wins
AwayVincenec3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderRus leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRus100%3 of 3
AwayVincenec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rus3Vincenec4n = 7Vincenec took 4 of 7
S2Rus3Vincenec4n = 7Vincenec took 4 of 7
S3Rus4Vincenec3n = 7Rus took 4 of 7
S4Rus3Vincenec2n = 5Rus took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricRusVincenecR − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.138.1−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 415 vs 686 / 149732.1%45.8%133 / 415 vs 686 / 1497Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecRus 2.80/Vincenec 1.37
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 23 · 08:45M. Rus511011712113O. Vincenec49128111082
WJun 30 · 17:05M. Rus4111611133O. Vincenec367117111
LJun 30 · 08:45M. Rus188640O. Vincenec331111113
LJun 23 · 11:30M. Rus336111151O. Vincenec4411139113
WJun 23 · 07:10M. Rus4312119113O. Vincenec341071161
WJun 16 · 17:05M. Rus391111173O. Vincenec3078150
LJun 16 · 08:45M. Rus357711101O. Vincenec4111117123
M. Rus10
LSep 23 · 15:30M. Rus2.8089111182R. Gajda1.37111179113WSep 23 · 14:20M. Rus2.10141111123B. Madej1.6512813101LSep 23 · 12:50M. Rus5.005730R. Skotniczny1.121111113LSep 23 · 11:30M. Rus2.759490M. Baron1.401111113LSep 23 · 10:20R. Skotniczny1.191116163M. Rus4.23514140LSep 23 · 09:30R. Gajda1.32111011133M. Rus3.109127111WSep 23 · 08:45M. Rus2.601011712113O. Vincenec1.44128111082LSep 23 · 07:10M. Rus2.55331141M. Baron1.4511117113LSep 23 · 06:20B. Madej1.6617911113M. Rus2.101511791LSep 16 · 17:05M. Rus4.50116981K. Hetnar1.1471111113
O. Vincenec10
WSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782WSep 23 · 14:45R. Gajda1.9011311782O. Vincenec1.80611811113WSep 23 · 13:30B. Madej1.709711101O. Vincenec1.9511115123LSep 23 · 11:55R. Skotniczny1.571111113O. Vincenec2.209840LSep 23 · 11:05R. Gajda1.70101111123O. Vincenec2.001286101WSep 23 · 09:55O. Vincenec2.1911116133M. Baron1.538911111LSep 23 · 08:45M. Rus2.601011712113O. Vincenec1.44128111082WSep 23 · 07:30B. Madej2.45911311102O. Vincenec1.49117116123LSep 23 · 05:55R. Skotniczny1.6511711113O. Vincenec2.10611831LSep 22 · 16:40W. Buczynski1.861111113O. Vincenec1.839880
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