TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Baron vs Lukasz Oracz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611115117911118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 65.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 21–29 Lukasz Oracz Mariusz Baron has won 21 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-29 in 50
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 8 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1285 vs Oracz 1402
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Oracz 70%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -2 · Oracz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.50 / Oracz 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Oracz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13194331
Baron2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 190 of 475
Down 0–1, comes back25% 64 of 258
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 133
Oracz1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 370 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 206 of 213
Up 1–0, closes it82% 289 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron3wins
AwayOracz7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron50%2 of 4
AwayOracz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Baron2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S3Baron2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Baron3Oracz3n = 6split evenly
S5Baron2Oracz1n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronOraczB − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.338.8−3.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1828 vs 844 / 153247.8%55.1%873 / 1828 vs 844 / 1532Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczBaron 2.50/Oracz 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron229580L. Oracz331111113
WSep 6 · 18:45M. Baron5310101111113L. Oracz4512125882
WAug 25 · 09:50M. Baron48111376113L. Oracz42511111142
LAug 25 · 05:40M. Baron28661151L. Oracz3611113113
LAug 21 · 13:55M. Baron238870L. Oracz331111113
LAug 21 · 04:10M. Baron215790L. Oracz331111113
WAug 17 · 01:55M. Baron4011117113L. Oracz29671151
LAug 16 · 19:55M. Baron431614671L. Oracz52141611113
LAug 14 · 22:35M. Baron52118141182L. Oracz51611167113
LAug 14 · 15:00M. Baron2367100L. Oracz341111123
M. Baron10
LSep 25 · 18:30K. Juszczyk1.6711129113M. Baron2.109101181LSep 25 · 17:45O. Sokolowski1.73411911113M. Baron2.0011611872WSep 25 · 16:55M. Baron1.91811119113O. Vincenec1.8011741192WSep 25 · 15:50M. Baron1.571111113W. Jozala2.256380LSep 23 · 16:40B. Madej2.55991411113M. Baron1.42111112892LSep 23 · 15:55O. Vincenec2.15821111113M. Baron1.6011118782LSep 23 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.731111113M. Baron1.987850LSep 23 · 13:10R. Gajda1.93931111113M. Baron1.7811118552WSep 23 · 11:30M. Rus2.759490M. Baron1.401111113WSep 23 · 10:40B. Madej2.4511691492M. Baron1.507111112113
L. Oracz10
LSep 25 · 21:00O. Vincenec1.8361111113L. Oracz1.83117581LSep 25 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.83911119113L. Oracz1.8311671152WSep 25 · 17:20K. Juszczyk1.50118561L. Oracz2.5051111113LSep 25 · 16:35W. Jozala1.73111156113L. Oracz2.0079111192WSep 25 · 15:00O. Sokolowski2.501091171L. Oracz1.5012117113WSep 24 · 14:20M. Jozefiak2.25811120L. Oracz1.571113143WSep 24 · 13:30W. Urban1.73761381L. Oracz2.00111111113WSep 24 · 11:25K. Schaniel2.251161161L. Oracz1.5713114113LSep 24 · 10:35O. Jadach1.571111113L. Oracz2.257980WSep 24 · 09:00I. Szymanski4.50121111972L. Oracz1.171021311113
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