TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Janik vs Ales Drozd 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111141181113119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMichal Janik above · Ales Drozd below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9
94 points played in total.
H2H Michal Janik 3–5 Ales Drozd Michal Janik has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Drozd beat Janik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Drozd)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJanik 1.91 / Drozd 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Drozd)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13194596
Janik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 32 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Drozd1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 49 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it70% 37 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJanik3wins
AwayDrozd5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderDrozd leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJanik33.3%1 of 3
AwayDrozd60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Janik3Drozd5n = 8Drozd took 5 of 8
S2Janik3Drozd5n = 8Drozd took 5 of 8
S3Janik3Drozd5n = 8Drozd took 5 of 8
S4Janik2Drozd2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricJanikDrozdJ − DBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match35.136.1−1.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJanikDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 289 vs 144 / 28245.3%51.1%131 / 289 vs 144 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrozdJanik 1.91/Drozd 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Drozd · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Janik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 25 · 10:45M. Janik391181371A. Drozd4691115113
LSep 19 · 17:15M. Janik249780A. Drozd331111113
WSep 19 · 15:45M. Janik4181111113A. Drozd34119591
LAug 23 · 09:05M. Janik227780A. Drozd331111113
WAug 23 · 07:40M. Janik51911119113A. Drozd4211851172
LAug 4 · 06:40M. Janik2610880A. Drozd341211113
LMar 29 · 12:40M. Janik4511871182A. Drozd42111118113
WMar 29 · 12:10M. Janik331111113A. Drozd259790
M. Janik10
WSep 25 · 12:15M. Janik1.8315311113T. Ogrocki1.831311781LSep 25 · 10:45A. Drozd2.0091115113M. Janik1.731181371LSep 25 · 10:15O. Skvor1.911011811113M. Janik1.8012111992WSep 25 · 09:14M. Janik1.6791113113J. Sindler2.101191171LSep 25 · 07:45O. Skvor2.0011118123M. Janik1.738611101WSep 25 · 07:15I. Jemelka2.0015351192M. Janik1.731311118113WSep 25 · 06:15M. Janik1.61571111113J. Sindler2.2011116892WSep 19 · 21:13K. Zeman1.801153101M. Janik1.9181111123LSep 19 · 19:45K. Zeman2.101051111123M. Janik1.67121179102WSep 19 · 19:15J. Vanous2.0011611862M. Janik1.73911911113
A. Drozd10
LSep 25 · 11:45A. Drozd1.67571151O. Skvor2.1011117113WSep 25 · 10:45A. Drozd2.0091115113M. Janik1.731181371LSep 25 · 09:45A. Drozd1.611221071T. Ogrocki2.20101112113WSep 21 · 13:10O. Skvor1.837990A. Drozd1.831111113LSep 21 · 11:40O. Skvor2.00132111113A. Drozd1.7311191341WSep 21 · 11:10P. Jokiel2.1011115882A. Drozd1.67961111113WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6171111113M. Kliment2.20113771WSep 21 · 10:10A. Drozd1.6271111113M. Klimenta2.15113771LSep 20 · 16:44A. Drozd1.83116122112P. Jokiel1.836111011133LSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113
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