TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Josef Medek vs Erik Mares 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121178111715116
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 17-15
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 108 set 5, 11-6
108 points played in total.
H2H Josef Medek 57–28 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 28 of their 85 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Medek beat Mares 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Medek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.53 / Mares 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Medek)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13191954
Medek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 108 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 79 of 99
Mares2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 103 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back26% 30 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek5wins
AwayMares5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek100%5 of 5
AwayMares100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Medek2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Medek7Mares3n = 10Medek took 7 of 10
S4Medek5Mares4n = 9Medek took 5 of 9
S5Medek3Mares2n = 5Medek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekMaresMedek − MaresBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.941.0+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 507 vs 601 / 119558%50.3%294 / 507 vs 601 / 1195Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.53/Mares 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 18:00J. Medek6311111119113E. Mares4881332132
LSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek45610111172E. Mares48111259113
LSep 16 · 18:00J. Medek32651291E. Mares43111110113
WSep 5 · 10:00J. Medek331111113E. Mares179620
WSep 4 · 21:30J. Medek52119912113E. Mares40311111052
LSep 4 · 18:00J. Medek4678111372E. Mares501111611113
LSep 2 · 21:29J. Medek29611751E. Mares3611311113
WSep 2 · 19:30J. Medek48128411133E. Mares491011116112
LSep 1 · 16:30J. Medek39781591E. Mares46111113113
WAug 26 · 19:00J. Medek4211911113E. Mares33811591
J. Medek10
LSep 24 · 20:00J. Medek1.674770J. Zajicek2.101111113WSep 24 · 19:30J. Vales2.63118891J. Medek1.4481111113WSep 24 · 18:00J. Medek1.5011111119113E. Mares2.5081332132WSep 20 · 17:30J. Medek1.83119115113J. Zajicek1.8371181172WSep 20 · 16:30J. Medek1.831111113D. Opanasiuk1.836940WSep 20 · 15:00J. Medek2.10111112133J. Cernik1.675514111WSep 20 · 14:00J. Zajicek2.10231190J. Medek1.672513113LSep 20 · 12:58J. Medek1.5733111252D. Opanasiuk2.251111610113LSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113LSep 20 · 11:00J. Medek2.10117881J. Cernik1.6771111113
E. Mares10
LSep 24 · 20:30E. Mares1.8310111081J. Vales1.8312612113LSep 24 · 19:00E. Mares1.805960J. Zajicek1.911111113LSep 24 · 18:00J. Medek1.5011111119113E. Mares2.5081332132WSep 22 · 13:00J. Vales1.9531111572E. Mares1.70119611113LSep 22 · 12:00T. Kos1.611111123E. Mares2.2073100LSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales1.8361112113E. Mares1.831171091LSep 22 · 10:30E. Mares2.20114531L. Jindrak1.6131111113WSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113LSep 22 · 08:30E. Mares2.2091090T. Kos1.611112113WSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113
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