TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Josef Medek vs Erik Mares 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Josef Medek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11811131131921113
Erik Mares
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeJosef Medek to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Medek above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 19-21
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 111 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Josef Medek at 62.4%
111 points played in total.
H2H Josef Medek 56–28 Erik Mares Erik Mares has won 28 of their 84 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Medek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-28 in 84
Medek
Correct
gap of 28 in 84, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Medek 1982 vs Mares 1869
Medek
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Medek 80% vs Mares 40%
Medek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Medek 60% vs Mares 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Medek +4 · Mares +1
Medek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Medek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Medek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMedek 1.50 / Mares 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Medek)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13182926
Medek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 20)
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 108 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 79 of 99
Mares2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 22)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 103 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back26% 30 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMedek5wins
AwayMares5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMedek100%5 of 5
AwayMares100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Medek5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Medek2Mares8n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Medek6Mares4n = 10Medek took 6 of 10
S4Medek6Mares3n = 9Medek took 6 of 9
S5Medek3Mares2n = 5Medek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMedekMaresMedek − MaresBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.641.2+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMedekMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 516 vs 602 / 119558.3%50.4%301 / 516 vs 602 / 1195Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MedekMedek 1.50/Mares 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Medek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Medek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek45610111172E. Mares48111259113
LSep 16 · 18:00J. Medek32651291E. Mares43111110113
WSep 5 · 10:00J. Medek331111113E. Mares179620
WSep 4 · 21:30J. Medek52119912113E. Mares40311111052
LSep 4 · 18:00J. Medek4678111372E. Mares501111611113
LSep 2 · 21:29J. Medek29611751E. Mares3611311113
WSep 2 · 19:30J. Medek48128411133E. Mares491011116112
LSep 1 · 16:30J. Medek39781591E. Mares46111113113
WAug 26 · 19:00J. Medek4211911113E. Mares33811591
WAug 25 · 19:30J. Medek50117711143E. Mares50911117122
J. Medek10
WSep 20 · 17:30J. Medek1.83119115113J. Zajicek1.8371181172WSep 20 · 16:30J. Medek1.831111113D. Opanasiuk1.836940WSep 20 · 15:00J. Medek2.10111112133J. Cernik1.675514111WSep 20 · 14:00J. Zajicek2.10231190J. Medek1.672513113LSep 20 · 12:58J. Medek1.5733111252D. Opanasiuk2.251111610113LSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113LSep 20 · 11:00J. Medek2.10117881J. Cernik1.6771111113WSep 20 · 10:00D. Opanasiuk2.1079110J. Medek1.671111133LSep 16 · 20:58J. Medek1.8071113432J. Zajicek1.911161111113WSep 16 · 20:30J. Medek1.8091111113J. Zajicek1.91118791
E. Mares10
LSep 24 · 19:00E. Mares1.805960J. Zajicek1.911111113WSep 22 · 13:00J. Vales1.9531111572E. Mares1.70119611113LSep 22 · 12:00T. Kos1.611111123E. Mares2.2073100LSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales1.8361112113E. Mares1.831171091LSep 22 · 10:30E. Mares2.20114531L. Jindrak1.6131111113WSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113LSep 22 · 08:30E. Mares2.2091090T. Kos1.611112113WSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151WSep 22 · 06:00L. Jindrak1.67791381E. Mares2.10111111113WSep 20 · 12:30J. Medek1.50610111172E. Mares2.50111259113
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