TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Kos vs Erik Mares 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Kos
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171131210––––
Erik Mares
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:44 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Kos to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kos above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 54 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Kos at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kos 21–21 Erik Mares Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kos beat Mares 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1958 vs Mares 1870
Kos
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 80% vs Mares 40%
Kos
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 70% vs Mares 40%
Kos
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +1 · Mares -3
Mares
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kos) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 1.61 / Mares 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kos)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169664
Kos1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 31 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Mares2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 101 of 219
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos6wins
AwayMares4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos80%4 of 5
AwayMares60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S2Kos4Mares6n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Kos7Mares3n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S4Kos4Mares3n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosMaresK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.734.3+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 189 vs 605 / 120152.4%50.4%99 / 189 vs 605 / 1201Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosKos 1.61/Mares 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Kos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos33119491E. Mares3851111113
WSep 22 · 08:30T. Kos341112113E. Mares2891090
LSep 13 · 20:00T. Kos388101191E. Mares3811124113
LSep 12 · 10:30T. Kos31111280E. Mares381314113
WSep 12 · 09:30T. Kos4281111123E. Mares311164101
WSep 12 · 07:30T. Kos3411111113E. Mares31571181
LAug 30 · 11:30T. Kos36891181E. Mares3711114113
WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kos4011711113E. Mares25411551
WAug 28 · 12:30T. Kos381611113E. Mares2714580
WAug 20 · 15:00T. Kos51891211113E. Mares50111110992
T. Kos10
WSep 22 · 11:30L. Jindrak2.63711118102T. Kos1.44119911123LSep 22 · 10:00T. Kos1.9111891152J. Vales1.80611114113LSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113WSep 22 · 08:30E. Mares2.2091090T. Kos1.611112113WSep 22 · 07:30T. Kos1.44111112113L. Jindrak2.63491461WSep 22 · 06:30J. Vales1.5771160T. Kos2.251113113WSep 13 · 20:59T. Kos1.308111011113M. Zahradka3.4011712882LSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191WSep 13 · 19:00T. Postelt2.5031111782T. Kos1.50119911113WSep 13 · 18:30T. Kos1.281113811113M. Zahradka3.5081511752
E. Mares10
LSep 22 · 10:30E. Mares2.20114531L. Jindrak1.6131111113WSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113LSep 22 · 08:30E. Mares2.2091090T. Kos1.611112113WSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151WSep 22 · 06:00L. Jindrak1.67791381E. Mares2.10111111113LSep 21 · 16:58E. Mares2.001291291J. Zajicek1.73141110113WSep 21 · 16:00J. Zajicek1.801112961E. Mares1.9161411113LSep 21 · 15:00T. Postelt1.83116115123E. Mares1.83811511102LSep 21 · 14:30E. Mares2.101113117132V. Koubek1.67315411153WSep 13 · 20:00E. Mares2.2011124113T. Kos1.618101191
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