TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Vales vs Erik Mares 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311119116511711
Erik Mares
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Erik Mares below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11
85 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 38–40 Erik Mares Jakub Vales has won 38 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mares beat Vales 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 1.95 / Mares 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mares)+0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13177628
Vales1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Mares1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 141 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it88% 92 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it72% 120 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales5wins
AwayMares5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales66.7%2 of 3
AwayMares57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales3Mares7n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S2Vales6Mares4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S3Vales5Mares5n = 10split evenly
S4Vales6Mares4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S5Vales2Mares2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesMaresV − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.641.4−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 517 vs 605 / 120254.6%50.3%282 / 517 vs 605 / 1202Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresVales 1.95/Mares 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales4061112113E. Mares371171091
LSep 22 · 07:00J. Vales26551151E. Mares3611113113
LSep 6 · 08:00J. Vales3751151152E. Mares43114116113
WSep 5 · 12:00J. Vales48611511153E. Mares47119113132
LSep 4 · 20:00J. Vales312111171E. Mares4311813113
WJul 30 · 23:30J. Vales43111011113E. Mares36912781
LJul 30 · 15:30J. Vales387118121E. Mares4311711143
LJul 29 · 10:30J. Vales4213115852E. Mares521181111113
WJul 29 · 09:28J. Vales50871111133E. Mares48111169112
WJul 29 · 06:00J. Vales4111711123E. Mares295113101
J. Vales10
LSep 22 · 12:30J. Vales1.91781171L. Jindrak1.8011119113WSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales1.8361112113E. Mares1.831171091WSep 22 · 10:00T. Kos1.9111891152J. Vales1.80611114113LSep 22 · 09:02L. Jindrak1.80911116113J. Vales1.9111581172LSep 22 · 08:00L. Jindrak1.801171011113J. Vales1.9161112772LSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151LSep 22 · 06:30J. Vales1.5771160T. Kos2.251113113WSep 7 · 21:00J. Vales1.7311912113V. Koubek2.007111071LSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113LSep 7 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.401111113J. Vales2.756890
E. Mares10
LSep 22 · 12:00T. Kos1.611111123E. Mares2.2073100LSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales1.8361112113E. Mares1.831171091LSep 22 · 10:30E. Mares2.20114531L. Jindrak1.6131111113WSep 22 · 09:30T. Kos1.57119491E. Mares2.2551111113LSep 22 · 08:30E. Mares2.2091090T. Kos1.611112113WSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151WSep 22 · 06:00L. Jindrak1.67791381E. Mares2.10111111113LSep 21 · 16:58E. Mares2.001291291J. Zajicek1.73141110113WSep 21 · 16:00J. Zajicek1.801112961E. Mares1.9161411113LSep 21 · 15:00T. Postelt1.83116115123E. Mares1.83811511102
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.