TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Vales vs Lukas Jindrak 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Jakub Vales
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811119711––
Lukas Jindrak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Jindrak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Vales above · Lukas Jindrak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Jindrak at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Vales 12–17 Lukas Jindrak Jakub Vales has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 4h before this match
Jindrak beat Vales 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jindrak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Jindrak
Correct
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vales 1831 vs Jindrak 1867
Jindrak
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vales 40% vs Jindrak 60%
Jindrak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vales 40% vs Jindrak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vales +2 · Jindrak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jindrak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVales 1.91 / Jindrak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jindrak)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169777
Vales1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Jindrak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 73 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 49 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVales3wins
AwayJindrak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJindrak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVales60%3 of 5
AwayJindrak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vales5Jindrak5n = 10split evenly
S2Vales4Jindrak6n = 10Jindrak took 6 of 10
S3Vales6Jindrak4n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Vales3Jindrak6n = 9Jindrak took 6 of 9
S5Vales1Jindrak3n = 4Jindrak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricValesJindrakV − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.242.5−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricValesJindrakBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 516 vs 231 / 42354.7%54.6%282 / 516 vs 231 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JindrakVales 1.91/Jindrak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jindrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jindrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 09:02J. Vales4211581172L. Jindrak48911116113
LSep 22 · 08:00J. Vales4361112772L. Jindrak501171011113
WSep 5 · 16:59J. Vales351111133L. Jindrak2476110
LSep 5 · 14:00J. Vales4612911592L. Jindrak481011511113
LJul 29 · 11:30J. Vales379711101L. Jindrak4211118123
WJul 29 · 07:00J. Vales4211128113L. Jindrak336101161
LJun 24 · 08:00J. Vales43101112101L. Jindrak47121310123
LJun 23 · 08:00J. Vales381211781L. Jindrak4414811113
WJun 20 · 17:30J. Vales47118611113L. Jindrak4661111992
LJun 20 · 14:30J. Vales391091191L. Jindrak4312119113
J. Vales10
LSep 22 · 13:00J. Vales1.9531111572E. Mares1.70119611113WSep 22 · 11:00J. Vales1.8361112113E. Mares1.831171091WSep 22 · 10:00T. Kos1.9111891152J. Vales1.80611114113LSep 22 · 09:02L. Jindrak1.80911116113J. Vales1.9111581172LSep 22 · 08:00L. Jindrak1.801171011113J. Vales1.9161112772LSep 22 · 07:00E. Mares1.8311113113J. Vales1.83551151LSep 22 · 06:30J. Vales1.5771160T. Kos2.251113113WSep 7 · 21:00J. Vales1.7311912113V. Koubek2.007111071LSep 7 · 20:00J. Vales2.63641181J. Medek1.4411117113LSep 7 · 19:30J. Zajicek1.401111113J. Vales2.756890
L. Jindrak10
LSep 22 · 11:30L. Jindrak2.63711118102T. Kos1.44119911123WSep 22 · 10:30E. Mares2.20114531L. Jindrak1.6131111113WSep 22 · 09:02L. Jindrak1.80911116113J. Vales1.9111581172WSep 22 · 08:00L. Jindrak1.801171011113J. Vales1.9161112772LSep 22 · 06:00L. Jindrak1.67791381E. Mares2.10111111113LSep 12 · 13:30L. Jindrak2.252740T. Kos1.571111113WSep 12 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.571111113E. Mares2.258770LSep 12 · 11:00L. Jindrak2.1068130T. Kos1.671111153WSep 12 · 10:00L. Zeman2.508140L. Jindrak1.501111113WSep 12 · 08:59M. Huk2.5011791172L. Jindrak1.50811118113
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