Denys Boltenkov vs Vitalii Kaganovych 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Sep 25Finished

Denys Boltenkov

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

9111191210115––

Vitalii Kaganovych

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%

Graded at full time

Vitalii Kaganovych to win

63.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingDenys Boltenkov above · Vitalii Kaganovych below

Set 1 · 9-11

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 11-5

Point 78 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 63.3%

78 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 20:21

What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Kaganovych

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Boltenkov 1335 vs Kaganovych 1390

Kaganovych

Wrong

both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Boltenkov 60% vs Kaganovych 20%

Boltenkov

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Boltenkov 50% vs Kaganovych 30%

Boltenkov

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Boltenkov +1 · Kaganovych -3

Kaganovych

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kaganovych form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBoltenkov 2.50 / Kaganovych 1.50

Signal prob.38% / 63%

Edge (Kaganovych)+0.0pp

Setka Cup · #13191510

Boltenkov2.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Kaganovych1.50

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite65% won 127 of 196

Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67

Up 1–0, closes it83% 89 of 107

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricBoltenkovKaganovychBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 46 vs 335 / 54952.2%61%24 / 46 vs 335 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kaganovych

Boltenkov 2.50/Kaganovych 1.50

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62.5%

Kaganovych · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Boltenkov won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

D. Boltenkov10