TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Leonov vs Denys Boltenkov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Viktor Leonov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116811119118
Denys Boltenkov
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltenkov to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Denys Boltenkov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Denys Boltenkov at 58.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 0–1 Denys Boltenkov Viktor Leonov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Boltenkov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1318 vs Boltenkov 1352
Boltenkov
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 20% vs Boltenkov 80%
Boltenkov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 30% vs Boltenkov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov -3 · Boltenkov +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Boltenkov) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltenkov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 2.25 / Boltenkov 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Boltenkov)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13186275
Leonov2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Boltenkov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 17 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLeonov0wins
AwayBoltenkov1wins
Boltenkov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLeonovBoltenkovL − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.041.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovBoltenkovBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 135 vs 23 / 4359.3%53.5%80 / 135 vs 23 / 43Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltenkovLeonov 2.25/Boltenkov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Boltenkov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 17 · 16:35V. Leonov33115891D. Boltenkov4181111113
V. Leonov10
LSep 24 · 18:35A. Azarov1.9191611113V. Leonov1.801114591LSep 24 · 16:35V. Leonov1.531264111V. Sydorenko2.38101111133LSep 24 · 15:05V. Leonov2.20841161F. Chashchin1.6111119113LSep 24 · 13:05V. Leonov2.2011911472V. Slabyshev1.61811911113WSep 17 · 18:35A. Azarov1.61108111452V. Leonov2.201211812113LSep 17 · 17:35V. Leonov1.83137491V. Chumak1.83111111113LSep 17 · 16:35V. Leonov2.38115891D. Boltenkov1.5381111113LSep 17 · 15:05V. Leonov2.255930Y. Bielokon1.571111113WSep 17 · 13:05V. Leonov1.73111111113V. Sydorenko2.00134661LSep 16 · 19:05H. Buianover4.5011119113V. Leonov1.17961191
D. Boltenkov10
WSep 24 · 15:35A. Azarov2.632630D. Boltenkov1.441111113WSep 24 · 14:35D. Boltenkov1.5311116113V. Sydorenko2.38991151WSep 24 · 13:35F. Chashchin1.91116841D. Boltenkov1.8081111113LSep 18 · 19:05D. Boltenkov1.301661191A. Azarov3.4018116113WSep 18 · 17:05R. Serhyenko3.009860D. Boltenkov1.361111113LSep 18 · 16:05D. Boltenkov1.91111090I. Yelfimov1.801312113LSep 18 · 15:05Y. Bielokon2.38111194113D. Boltenkov1.5383111152LSep 18 · 13:35D. Boltenkov1.8011691172V. Chumak1.91311119113LSep 17 · 19:05Y. Bielokon2.75119411113D. Boltenkov1.4041111732WSep 17 · 16:35V. Leonov2.38115891D. Boltenkov1.5381111113
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