TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Honcharenko vs Vasyl Matviichuk 2-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
141261163––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-3
Point 52 set 3, 6-3 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 64.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 98–67 Vasyl Matviichuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 67 of their 165 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
98-67 in 165
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 31 in 165, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1337 vs Matviichuk 1106
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 60% vs Matviichuk 80%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 60% vs Matviichuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -1 · Matviichuk +4
Matviichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Honcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.53 / Matviichuk 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Honcharenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13190710
Honcharenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 97 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Matviichuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 22)
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog28% won 33 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back8% 6 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko7wins
AwayMatviichuk3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayMatviichukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko8Matviichuk2n = 10Honcharenko took 8 of 10
S2Honcharenko7Matviichuk3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko3Matviichuk7n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S4Honcharenko6Matviichuk1n = 7Honcharenko took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukH − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.932.5+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 843 vs 287 / 60251.5%47.7%434 / 843 vs 287 / 602Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.53/Matviichuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 10:28S. Honcharenko3811431192V. Matviichuk49811118113
LSep 22 · 06:00S. Honcharenko379111161V. Matviichuk3811313113
WSep 17 · 07:00S. Honcharenko4411156123V. Matviichuk4281311101
WSep 15 · 05:30S. Honcharenko3911116113V. Matviichuk27551161
WSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko331111113V. Matviichuk238780
WSep 3 · 08:00S. Honcharenko331111113V. Matviichuk155640
WAug 31 · 10:28S. Honcharenko4111117123V. Matviichuk368711101
WAug 31 · 06:00S. Honcharenko4411911133V. Matviichuk305113111
LAug 30 · 09:00S. Honcharenko217950V. Matviichuk331111113
WAug 27 · 12:00S. Honcharenko3911116113V. Matviichuk32861171
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 24 · 10:38S. Honcharenko3.4061211682M. Pohorilyi1.301110911113WSep 24 · 08:30I. Sorochan2.63811931S. Honcharenko1.4411511113WSep 24 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.831411113M. Zavoloka1.8312670WSep 24 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.20116101172S. Honcharenko4.33911124113LSep 24 · 05:30S. Honcharenko4.00511711122S. Sideltsev1.22118116143LSep 22 · 10:28V. Matviichuk2.50811118113S. Honcharenko1.5011431192WSep 22 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.001111123M. Zavoloka1.7367100WSep 22 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.281111113V. Hyriavyi3.503770WSep 22 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.1711611113V. Khyzhnyak4.50411681LSep 22 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.539111161V. Matviichuk2.3811313113
V. Matviichuk10
WSep 25 · 06:00V. Saakian1.444730V. Matviichuk2.631111113WSep 22 · 10:28V. Matviichuk2.50811118113S. Honcharenko1.5011431192WSep 22 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak2.508111241V. Matviichuk1.50111310113WSep 22 · 07:30V. Hyriavyi2.50137141122V. Matviichuk1.501511123113WSep 22 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.539111161V. Matviichuk2.3811313113LSep 22 · 05:00M. Zavoloka1.4411612113V. Matviichuk2.637111081LSep 20 · 16:59V. Matviichuk1.44117691A. Danylov2.6371111113LSep 20 · 16:00V. Matviichuk1.804870S. Zherykhin1.911111113WSep 20 · 15:00A. Danylov2.7571590V. Matviichuk1.401117113WSep 20 · 14:00A. Lysyi1.91770V. Matviichuk1.8011112
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