TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Skotniczny vs Jakub Nowak 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.27
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
81112141416––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:20 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
81112141416––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 16–9 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-9 in 25
Skotniczny
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1477 vs Nowak 1246
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Nowak 40%
Skotniczny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 80% vs Nowak 40%
Skotniczny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +1 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.27 / Nowak 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13187724
Skotniczny1.27
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 212 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it96% 111 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it82% 161 of 197
Nowak3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 242 of 665
Down 0–1, comes back22% 86 of 400
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 232
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwayNowak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%5 of 5
AwayNowak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S2Skotniczny8Nowak2n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S3Skotniczny4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny6Nowak1n = 7Skotniczny took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyNowakS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.035.7+5.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime618 / 1051 vs 683 / 176658.8%38.7%618 / 1051 vs 683 / 1766Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.27/Nowak 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 06:25R. Skotniczny34812140J. Nowak411114163
LAug 6 · 16:20R. Skotniczny47611121172J. Nowak43114143113
WAug 6 · 06:45R. Skotniczny4681116113J. Nowak391151491
WMar 31 · 11:55R. Skotniczny44111111113J. Nowak27413281
WMar 31 · 05:55R. Skotniczny331111113J. Nowak164840
LMar 19 · 16:05R. Skotniczny398118121J. Nowak4511911143
WMar 19 · 10:05R. Skotniczny3911116113J. Nowak31951161
WDec 5 · 12:55R. Skotniczny361111143J. Nowak2576120
WDec 5 · 06:55R. Skotniczny43111110113J. Nowak36981271
LNov 11 · 07:20R. Skotniczny49813111162J. Nowak541111138113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 24 · 08:00M. Lebek1.95111061192R. Skotniczny1.75912118113WSep 24 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010101117112R. Skotniczny1.351212715133WSep 24 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.4211118113O. Sokolowski2.55241151LSep 24 · 04:00A. Burkacki2.1411411113R. Skotniczny1.64711881LSep 23 · 16:20R. Skotniczny1.60811129112R. Gajda2.101191011133WSep 23 · 15:05R. Skotniczny1.221111113B. Madej3.607750WSep 23 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.731111113M. Baron1.987850WSep 23 · 12:50M. Rus5.005730R. Skotniczny1.121111113WSep 23 · 11:55R. Skotniczny1.571111113O. Vincenec2.209840WSep 23 · 10:20R. Skotniczny1.191116163M. Rus4.23514140
J. Nowak10
LSep 24 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.8511121313113J. Nowak1.85714151182LSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113LSep 24 · 05:10A. Burkacki1.80811117143J. Nowak1.85118911122WSep 24 · 03:35M. Lebek1.579121021J. Nowak2.27111012113LSep 24 · 02:45A. Burkacki1.66711118113J. Nowak2.0511651152WSep 24 · 01:35J. Nowak2.2512812123O. Sokolowski1.54101110101LSep 24 · 24:25R. Wiza1.65117118113J. Nowak2.1081141192LSep 23 · 23:10K. Hetnar1.221111113J. Nowak4.003750WSep 23 · 21:35M. Lebek2.071311101172J. Nowak1.68158125113LSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.103660L. Oracz1.671111113
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