TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kaczmarek vs Jakub Nowak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117121413151311118
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
115 points played in total.
Set by set
117121413151311118
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 36–37 Jakub Nowak Jakub Kaczmarek has won 36 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Nowak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-37 in 73
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1365 vs Nowak 1246
Kaczmarek
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -1 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaczmarek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.85 / Nowak 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaczmarek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13188095
Kaczmarek1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Nowak1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek4wins
AwayNowak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek80%4 of 5
AwayNowak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaczmarek6Nowak4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S3Kaczmarek4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Nowak3n = 5Nowak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekNowakK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.338.2−2.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1328 vs 683 / 176637.4%38.7%496 / 1328 vs 683 / 1766Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekKaczmarek 1.85/Nowak 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek47131111123J. Nowak4211813101
LAug 26 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek31124871J. Nowak43101111113
WAug 12 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek351111133J. Nowak2449110
LAug 4 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek551013119122J. Nowak531211511143
WJul 17 · 02:45J. Kaczmarek371111153J. Nowak3098130
LJul 7 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek4791511842J. Nowak531113711113
LJun 10 · 05:10J. Kaczmarek2146110J. Nowak351111133
LJun 4 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek176740J. Nowak331111113
LJun 4 · 01:35J. Kaczmarek2171040J. Nowak341112113
WJun 2 · 21:10J. Kaczmarek4211119113J. Nowak35871191
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 24 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010101117112R. Skotniczny1.351212715133WSep 24 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek1.88113611173A. Burkacki1.82411118152LSep 24 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.258280M. Lebek1.271111113WSep 24 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek1.761112113O. Sokolowski1.9061060LSep 22 · 08:45I. Szymanski2.551111113J. Kaczmarek1.459790WSep 22 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek3.45111411133K. Hetnar1.269167111LSep 22 · 06:25K. Kowalski3.7511711113J. Kaczmarek1.22611891LSep 22 · 05:10R. Gajda1.8311611113J. Kaczmarek1.87911691WSep 22 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111151082J. Kaczmarek1.70691112113LSep 21 · 17:05P. Ostachowski—511711113J. Kaczmarek—11511122
J. Nowak10
LSep 24 · 07:35J. Nowak2.1681080O. Sokolowski1.631112113WSep 24 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.27812140J. Nowak3.251114163LSep 24 · 05:10A. Burkacki1.80811117143J. Nowak1.85118911122WSep 24 · 03:35M. Lebek1.579121021J. Nowak2.27111012113LSep 24 · 02:45A. Burkacki1.66711118113J. Nowak2.0511651152WSep 24 · 01:35J. Nowak2.2512812123O. Sokolowski1.54101110101LSep 24 · 24:25R. Wiza1.65117118113J. Nowak2.1081141192LSep 23 · 23:10K. Hetnar1.221111113J. Nowak4.003750WSep 23 · 21:35M. Lebek2.071311101172J. Nowak1.68158125113LSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.103660L. Oracz1.671111113
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