TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Skotniczny vs Boguslaw Madej 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117115––––
Boguslaw Madej
Away
3.60
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
117117115––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 15–10 Boguslaw Madej Boguslaw Madej has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skotniczny beat Madej 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (75%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-10 in 25
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1509 vs Madej 1203
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 305 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 100% vs Madej 0%
Skotniczny
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 100% vs Madej 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +10 · Madej -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madej form (0%) is below what odds imply (28%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.22 / Madej 3.60
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13183685
Skotniczny1.22
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 203 of 322
Up 2–0, closes it96% 105 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it81% 153 of 189
Madej3.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 47 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwayMadej4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny85.7%6 of 7
AwayMadej100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny7Madej3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S2Skotniczny7Madej3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S3Skotniczny6Madej4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny4Madej2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyMadejS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.132.6+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyMadejBasisWin rate · lifetime615 / 1046 vs 142 / 39358.8%36.1%615 / 1046 vs 142 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.22/Madej 3.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.9%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 09:05R. Skotniczny44111111113B. Madej35861381
WAug 18 · 15:05R. Skotniczny341111123B. Madej2385100
LAug 18 · 07:30R. Skotniczny4899111182B. Madej47111186113
WMay 26 · 12:45R. Skotniczny341211113B. Madej1610330
LMay 26 · 10:20R. Skotniczny43111011111B. Madej4571213133
LMay 19 · 12:45R. Skotniczny52991111122B. Madej46111128143
WMay 19 · 10:20R. Skotniczny331111113B. Madej188370
LApr 28 · 12:45R. Skotniczny41101110101B. Madej4312712123
WApr 28 · 10:20R. Skotniczny341211113B. Madej2210480
WMar 31 · 15:05R. Skotniczny3811115113B. Madej31781151
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 23 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.731111113M. Baron1.987850WSep 23 · 12:50M. Rus5.005730R. Skotniczny1.121111113WSep 23 · 11:55R. Skotniczny1.571111113O. Vincenec2.209840WSep 23 · 10:20R. Skotniczny1.191116163M. Rus4.23514140WSep 23 · 09:05R. Skotniczny1.22111111113B. Madej4.00861381WSep 23 · 07:55R. Skotniczny1.5211911113M. Baron2.37911771WSep 23 · 06:45R. Gajda2.62114101152R. Skotniczny1.44711128113WSep 23 · 05:55R. Skotniczny1.6511711113O. Vincenec2.10611831WSep 21 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.451114113W. Tobiasz2.5541230WSep 21 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.83811281R. Skotniczny1.8611311113
B. Madej10
LSep 23 · 14:20M. Rus2.10141111123B. Madej1.6512813101LSep 23 · 13:30B. Madej1.709711101O. Vincenec1.9511115123LSep 23 · 12:30B. Madej2.8011881362R. Gajda1.376111111113LSep 23 · 10:40B. Madej2.4511691492M. Baron1.507111112113LSep 23 · 09:05R. Skotniczny1.22111111113B. Madej4.00861381LSep 23 · 08:20R. Gajda1.50111110113B. Madej2.35771291LSep 23 · 07:30B. Madej2.45911311102O. Vincenec1.49117116123WSep 23 · 06:20B. Madej1.6617911113M. Rus2.101511791WSep 16 · 16:40B. Madej2.20712167123M. Sikon1.5711101411102LSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780
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