TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141412113––––
Wojciech Tobiasz
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:21 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1141412113––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 43–23 Wojciech Tobiasz Wojciech Tobiasz has won 23 of their 66 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tobiasz beat Skotniczny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-23 in 66
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 20 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1447 vs Tobiasz 1267
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Tobiasz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 50% vs Tobiasz 30%
Skotniczny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +1 · Tobiasz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.45 / Tobiasz 2.55
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Skotniczny)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13168374
Skotniczny1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 201 of 316
Up 2–0, closes it95% 104 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it81% 151 of 187
Tobiasz2.55
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 78 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny7wins
AwayTobiasz3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%4 of 4
AwayTobiasz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny4Tobiasz6n = 10Tobiasz took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Tobiasz4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny6Tobiasz4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny3Tobiasz3n = 6split evenly
S5Skotniczny3Tobiasz0n = 3Skotniczny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyTobiaszS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.233.3+4.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyTobiaszBasisWin rate · lifetime610 / 1055 vs 320 / 70057.8%45.7%610 / 1055 vs 320 / 700Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.45/Tobiasz 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.2%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 10:40R. Skotniczny2341180W. Tobiasz351113113
WSep 18 · 16:40R. Skotniczny331111113W. Tobiasz225980
WSep 18 · 10:40R. Skotniczny49911117113W. Tobiasz4411861182
WSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny4281211113W. Tobiasz311110731
WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny46411911113W. Tobiasz3711711532
LAug 3 · 13:30R. Skotniczny391191181W. Tobiasz4113116113
WAug 3 · 07:30R. Skotniczny331111113W. Tobiasz176920
LJun 29 · 17:05R. Skotniczny205690W. Tobiasz331111113
WJun 29 · 08:45R. Skotniczny521191110113W. Tobiasz4381191232
WJun 15 · 12:45R. Skotniczny45111112113W. Tobiasz30751441
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 21 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.83811281R. Skotniczny1.8611311113LSep 21 · 14:20P. Ostachowski4.991611511123R. Skotniczny1.141491113102LSep 21 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.4571250J. Kaczmarek2.551114113WSep 21 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.9181914113O. Jadach1.8011171231LSep 21 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.6041180W. Tobiasz2.151113113LSep 21 · 09:05G. Wichowski1.83111411113R. Skotniczny1.86916631WSep 21 · 08:20O. Jadach1.91612851R. Skotniczny1.80111011113LSep 21 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.369121291J. Kaczmarek2.85111014113WSep 21 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—1211113P. Ostachowski—10970WSep 18 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.401111113W. Tobiasz2.705980
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 21 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek1.861111113W. Tobiasz1.833980WSep 21 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.36811101172W. Tobiasz2.90119127113LSep 21 · 13:10O. Jadach1.371511411143W. Tobiasz2.90176118122LSep 21 · 11:30P. Ostachowski1.7111611113W. Tobiasz2.00811651WSep 21 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.6041180W. Tobiasz2.151113113LSep 21 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek1.861111411113W. Tobiasz1.8313511872LSep 21 · 07:55G. Wichowski1.3311117123W. Tobiasz2.959911101LSep 21 · 06:20P. Ostachowski—101111113W. Tobiasz—128661WSep 21 · 05:30O. Jadach1.35891191W. Tobiasz2.9511116113LSep 18 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.401111113W. Tobiasz2.705980
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