TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119118––––
Wojciech Tobiasz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Tobiasz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
113119118––––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 10–20 Wojciech Tobiasz Jakub Kaczmarek has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kaczmarek beat Tobiasz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tobiasz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Tobiasz
Wrong
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1404 vs Tobiasz 1277
Kaczmarek
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 60% vs Tobiasz 40%
Kaczmarek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 70% vs Tobiasz 40%
Kaczmarek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -1 · Tobiasz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaczmarek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobiasz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.86 / Tobiasz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaczmarek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13167957
Kaczmarek1.86
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 167 of 496
Down 0–1, comes back18% 56 of 317
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 178
Tobiasz1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 45 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek5wins
AwayTobiasz5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek33.3%2 of 6
AwayTobiasz25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek6Tobiasz4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Kaczmarek5Tobiasz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaczmarek4Tobiasz6n = 10Tobiasz took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek5Tobiasz5n = 10split evenly
S5Kaczmarek3Tobiasz3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekTobiaszK − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.244.9−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekTobiaszBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 1331 vs 321 / 70037.2%45.9%495 / 1331 vs 321 / 700Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekKaczmarek 1.86/Tobiasz 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek481111411113W. Tobiasz4413511872
WSep 4 · 13:30J. Kaczmarek48119116113W. Tobiasz4791181182
WSep 4 · 07:30J. Kaczmarek44101112113W. Tobiasz381281081
LAug 14 · 14:45J. Kaczmarek45118101152W. Tobiasz49911126113
LAug 14 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek4713691182W. Tobiasz511111117113
LJul 31 · 11:30J. Kaczmarek421481191W. Tobiasz47121113113
WJul 31 · 07:55J. Kaczmarek3811411123W. Tobiasz389118101
WJun 15 · 09:05J. Kaczmarek5510111112113W. Tobiasz4812581492
LApr 27 · 17:05J. Kaczmarek33711871W. Tobiasz3811511113
LApr 27 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek4211119832W. Tobiasz49881111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 21 · 14:45O. Jadach1.351111113J. Kaczmarek3.009870WSep 21 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.4571250J. Kaczmarek2.551114113LSep 21 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.36611511113J. Kaczmarek2.9011811372WSep 21 · 11:05O. Jadach1.455580J. Kaczmarek2.451111113WSep 21 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek1.861111411113W. Tobiasz1.8313511872LSep 21 · 08:45P. Ostachowski—1111113J. Kaczmarek—9650WSep 21 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.369121291J. Kaczmarek2.85111014113WSep 21 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.29511761J. Kaczmarek2.8511511113WSep 19 · 08:20M. Cesarz2.5010440J. Kaczmarek1.441211113WSep 19 · 07:35W. Pytlas1.62116881J. Kaczmarek2.1531111113
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 21 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.451114113W. Tobiasz2.5541230WSep 21 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.36811101172W. Tobiasz2.90119127113LSep 21 · 13:10O. Jadach1.371511411143W. Tobiasz2.90176118122LSep 21 · 11:30P. Ostachowski1.7111611113W. Tobiasz2.00811651WSep 21 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.6041180W. Tobiasz2.151113113LSep 21 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek1.861111411113W. Tobiasz1.8313511872LSep 21 · 07:55G. Wichowski1.3311117123W. Tobiasz2.959911101LSep 21 · 06:20P. Ostachowski—101111113W. Tobiasz—128661WSep 21 · 05:30O. Jadach1.35891191W. Tobiasz2.9511116113LSep 18 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.401111113W. Tobiasz2.705980
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