TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111214511––––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:24 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
60 points played in total.
Set by set
7111214511––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 11–8 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kaczmarek beat Skotniczny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Skotniczny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1470 vs Kaczmarek 1399
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Kaczmarek 60%
Kaczmarek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 50% vs Kaczmarek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +1 · Kaczmarek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.45 / Kaczmarek 2.55
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Skotniczny)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13167437
Skotniczny1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 201 of 316
Up 2–0, closes it95% 104 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it81% 151 of 187
Kaczmarek2.55
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 167 of 496
Down 0–1, comes back18% 56 of 317
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny7wins
AwayKaczmarek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%5 of 5
AwayKaczmarek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S2Skotniczny8Kaczmarek2n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S3Skotniczny6Kaczmarek4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny3Kaczmarek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyKaczmarekS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.533.0+5.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime609 / 1052 vs 494 / 132957.9%37.2%609 / 1052 vs 494 / 1329Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.45/Kaczmarek 2.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 07:30R. Skotniczny429121291J. Kaczmarek46111014113
WSep 8 · 07:10R. Skotniczny46131111113J. Kaczmarek32159441
WJun 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny331111113J. Kaczmarek169610
LMay 6 · 15:05R. Skotniczny28117100J. Kaczmarek361311123
WMay 6 · 09:05R. Skotniczny47116118113J. Kaczmarek4661191192
WFeb 11 · 12:30R. Skotniczny331111113J. Kaczmarek219750
WFeb 11 · 08:10R. Skotniczny4391111123J. Kaczmarek331148101
WAug 21 · 15:55R. Skotniczny331111113J. Kaczmarek207760
WAug 21 · 09:55R. Skotniczny50111612113J. Kaczmarek395141461
LMay 15 · 10:20R. Skotniczny30611581J. Kaczmarek4111811113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 21 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.83811281R. Skotniczny1.8611311113LSep 21 · 14:20P. Ostachowski4.991611511123R. Skotniczny1.141491113102WSep 21 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.9181914113O. Jadach1.8011171231LSep 21 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.6041180W. Tobiasz2.151113113LSep 21 · 09:05G. Wichowski1.83111411113R. Skotniczny1.86916631WSep 21 · 08:20O. Jadach1.91612851R. Skotniczny1.80111011113LSep 21 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.369121291J. Kaczmarek2.85111014113WSep 21 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—1211113P. Ostachowski—10970WSep 18 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.401111113W. Tobiasz2.705980WSep 18 · 15:05P. Slosarczyk2.40119841R. Skotniczny1.4771111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 21 · 14:45O. Jadach1.351111113J. Kaczmarek3.009870LSep 21 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.36611511113J. Kaczmarek2.9011811372WSep 21 · 11:05O. Jadach1.455580J. Kaczmarek2.451111113WSep 21 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek1.861111411113W. Tobiasz1.8313511872LSep 21 · 08:45P. Ostachowski—1111113J. Kaczmarek—9650WSep 21 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.369121291J. Kaczmarek2.85111014113WSep 21 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.29511761J. Kaczmarek2.8511511113WSep 19 · 08:20M. Cesarz2.5010440J. Kaczmarek1.441211113WSep 19 · 07:35W. Pytlas1.62116881J. Kaczmarek2.1531111113LSep 19 · 05:35J. Pelka1.5411911113J. Kaczmarek2.25611791
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
J. Kaczmarek
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.