TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Koral vs Tomas Milkov 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Koral
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012119116119––
Tomas Milkov
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Koral to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Koral above · Tomas Milkov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Koral at 62.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Michal Koral 4–3 Tomas Milkov Tomas Milkov has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koral 1583 vs Milkov 1430
Koral
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koral 80% vs Milkov 40%
Koral
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koral 90% vs Milkov 30%
Koral
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koral -1 · Milkov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koral) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Milkov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoral 1.80 / Milkov 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koral)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13183437
Koral1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 48 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 40 of 52
Milkov1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 17 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back18% 5 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKoral4wins
AwayMilkov3wins
5 of 7 to a deciderKoral leads 4–3, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoral50%2 of 4
AwayMilkov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koral4Milkov3n = 7Koral took 4 of 7
S2Koral3Milkov4n = 7Milkov took 4 of 7
S3Koral4Milkov3n = 7Koral took 4 of 7
S4Koral1Milkov6n = 7Milkov took 6 of 7
S5Koral4Milkov1n = 5Koral took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKoralMilkovK − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match44.745.3−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoralMilkovBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 229 vs 87 / 17853.7%48.9%123 / 229 vs 87 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoralKoral 1.80/Milkov 1.91
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Koral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 31 · 13:00M. Koral46118115113T. Milkov4681191172
LAug 31 · 12:00M. Koral4411811772T. Milkov49711911113
LAug 27 · 20:00M. Koral351149111T. Milkov4271111133
WJul 7 · 09:00M. Koral518111110113T. Milkov4511791262
WJul 7 · 07:00M. Koral551311911113T. Milkov4815911852
WMay 11 · 11:30M. Koral531111911113T. Milkov4686111382
LMar 16 · 09:00M. Koral29981111T. Milkov4111118113
M. Koral10
WSep 24 · 11:00I. Taichman2.002790M. Koral1.731111113LSep 24 · 09:29M. Koral1.834116121M. Blejchar1.8311911143WSep 24 · 08:00M. Blejchar1.61981161M. Koral2.2011118113WSep 24 · 07:00P. Osvald2.63111070M. Koral1.441312113WSep 24 · 06:30M. Koral1.531111113T. Milota2.384690WSep 21 · 13:30M. Koral1.431111123F. Zurek2.6099100WSep 21 · 12:00M. Koral1.7311811113I. Taichman2.00711321WSep 21 · 11:30P. Varecha2.757260M. Koral1.401111113WSep 21 · 10:00M. Koral1.44611114113F. Zurek2.6311841172WSep 20 · 17:30V. Bosak1.738530M. Koral2.001111113
T. Milkov10
LSep 24 · 11:30T. Milkov2.00117851M. Kowolowski1.7381111113LSep 20 · 13:02T. Milkov1.91143871P. Hanel1.80121111103WSep 20 · 12:30R. Adam1.5741141182T. Milkov2.25117116113LSep 20 · 11:30T. Milkov1.831210128112P. Hanel1.8310121011133LSep 20 · 10:30M. Blejchar1.83111011123T. Milkov1.836128101WSep 18 · 17:00R. Guliak1.83571191T. Milkov1.8311119113LSep 18 · 16:00P. Osvald1.3311118113T. Milkov3.25971161LSep 18 · 15:00I. Taichman1.831111113T. Milkov1.837950LSep 18 · 14:30T. Milkov1.678880R. Guliak2.101111113LAug 31 · 13:00T. Milkov1.7381191172M. Koral2.00118115113
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