TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911117118114––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
2.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:08 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
911117118114––
H2H Rafal Stapor 23–15 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 20h before this match
Lukaszewski beat Stapor 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (65%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Stapor
Correct
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1495 vs Lukaszewski 1323
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Lukaszewski 40%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 90% vs Lukaszewski 30%
Stapor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +1 · Lukaszewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.40 / Lukaszewski 2.65
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Stapor)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13181784
Stapor1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 386 of 615
Up 2–0, closes it96% 196 of 205
Up 1–0, closes it81% 295 of 366
Lukaszewski2.65
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 259 of 638
Down 0–1, comes back14% 48 of 349
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 192
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor7wins
AwayLukaszewski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor80%4 of 5
AwayLukaszewski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Lukaszewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Stapor7Lukaszewski3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S3Stapor8Lukaszewski2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Stapor4Lukaszewski3n = 7Stapor took 4 of 7
S5Stapor2Lukaszewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporLukaszewskiS − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.937.8+5.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime689 / 1219 vs 909 / 200456.5%45.4%689 / 1219 vs 909 / 2004Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.40/Lukaszewski 2.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.6%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 08:10R. Stapor541291111113M. Lukaszewski5014117992
LSep 3 · 03:25R. Stapor37713891M. Lukaszewski44111111113
WJun 11 · 10:10R. Stapor351111133M. Lukaszewski2274110
LJun 10 · 04:30R. Stapor4391111842M. Lukaszewski49117911113
WMay 27 · 07:05R. Stapor4291111113M. Lukaszewski33117871
WMay 27 · 04:35R. Stapor331111113M. Lukaszewski164660
WMay 21 · 12:35R. Stapor351311113M. Lukaszewski2211380
WMay 19 · 10:55R. Stapor52991111123M. Lukaszewski49111198102
LMay 17 · 20:05R. Stapor5513101111102M. Lukaszewski571112913123
WMay 13 · 10:30R. Stapor4311129113M. Lukaszewski369101161
R. Stapor10
WSep 23 · 03:50B. Czerwinski1.521110781R. Stapor2.3091211113LSep 22 · 08:10R. Stapor1.40811771M. Lukaszewski2.7511511113WSep 22 · 06:30B. Wisniewski3.15911751R. Stapor1.3011911113WSep 22 · 05:40A. Sobel1.728420R. Stapor2.001111113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Stapor1.85114117113B. Sulkowski1.8071181172WSep 22 · 03:50R. Stapor1.451211113D. Wrobel2.5010760WSep 21 · 08:10R. Stapor1.501291111113M. Lukaszewski2.3514117992WSep 21 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.809780R. Stapor1.361111113WSep 21 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.854690R. Stapor1.361111113WSep 21 · 04:55R. Stapor1.751111113F. Krcil1.906590
M. Lukaszewski10
WSep 23 · 03:00W. Iwasyszyn1.8051170M. Lukaszewski1.901113113WSep 22 · 08:10R. Stapor1.40811771M. Lukaszewski2.7511511113LSep 22 · 07:20B. Sulkowski1.471111113M. Lukaszewski2.455970LSep 22 · 05:15B. Wisniewski2.001011115163M. Lukaszewski1.70127911142LSep 22 · 04:30D. Wrobel1.80111158113M. Lukaszewski1.8598111192WSep 22 · 03:00A. Sobel1.37118981M. Lukaszewski2.7561111113LSep 21 · 08:10R. Stapor1.501291111113M. Lukaszewski2.3514117992LSep 21 · 07:20F. Krcil1.76611118113M. Lukaszewski1.9011951152LSep 21 · 05:15B. Wisniewski1.951211143M. Lukaszewski1.75108120LSep 21 · 04:30A. Sobel1.25117125113M. Lukaszewski3.05811101162
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