TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Peter vs Roman Guliak 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Jaroslav Peter
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711114311411––
Roman Guliak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Peter to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Peter above · Roman Guliak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 62 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Jaroslav Peter at 56.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Peter 2–3 Roman Guliak Jaroslav Peter has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Guliak beat Peter 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Guliak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Peter 1380 vs Guliak 1415
Guliak
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Peter 60% vs Guliak 40%
Peter
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Peter 60% vs Guliak 40%
Peter
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Peter +2 · Guliak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Guliak) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPeter 2.25 / Guliak 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Guliak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13180544
Peter2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 12 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back32% 6 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Guliak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 48 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePeter2wins
AwayGuliak3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderGuliak leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePeter66.7%2 of 3
AwayGuliakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Peter3Guliak2n = 5Peter took 3 of 5
S2Peter2Guliak3n = 5Guliak took 3 of 5
S3Peter2Guliak3n = 5Guliak took 3 of 5
S4Peter0Guliak5n = 5Guliak took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPeterGuliakP − GBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match31.041.2−10.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPeterGuliakBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 92 vs 336 / 67640.2%49.7%37 / 92 vs 336 / 676Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuliakPeter 2.25/Guliak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Guliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 22 · 21:30J. Peter25711341R. Guliak3711411113
LSep 22 · 18:30J. Peter30119731R. Guliak4291111113
WNov 28 · 21:00J. Peter43115115113R. Guliak4281191132
LOct 20 · 14:30J. Peter26731331R. Guliak44111111113
J. Peter10
WSep 22 · 20:30M. Jasek2.00125871J. Peter1.73101111113WSep 22 · 19:30J. Peter2.008111311113V. Bosak1.73111311482LSep 22 · 18:30R. Guliak1.7391111113J. Peter2.00119731LSep 15 · 21:30J. Peter1.5511211752M. Jasek2.35511511113WSep 15 · 20:30M. Jasek1.737880J. Peter2.001111113WSep 15 · 19:30J. Peter2.001111113M. Kolek1.735350WSep 15 · 18:30J. Stach1.73351181J. Peter2.0011116113WSep 11 · 17:30D. Priesol1.52116691J. Peter2.3561111113LSep 11 · 16:00P. Kalvar1.731114811113J. Peter2.00712111362LSep 11 · 15:00D. Priesol2.001111123J. Peter1.7328100
R. Guliak10
LSep 22 · 20:00V. Bosak1.361111113R. Guliak3.007760WSep 22 · 19:00M. Jasek1.7381130R. Guliak2.001113113WSep 22 · 18:30R. Guliak1.7391111113J. Peter2.00119731LSep 18 · 21:28V. Bosak1.441111133R. Guliak2.6343110LSep 18 · 20:00R. Guliak2.6311114232V. Bosak1.44781111113WSep 18 · 19:30M. Kolek2.028111071R. Guliak1.7011612113WSep 18 · 18:00R. Guliak1.541112113T. Kraninger2.2581030LSep 18 · 17:00R. Guliak1.83571191T. Milkov1.8311119113LSep 18 · 16:30I. Taichman1.611011117113R. Guliak2.2012881182LSep 18 · 15:30R. Guliak2.2510660P. Osvald1.571211113
Upcoming Matches
J. Peter
Nothing scheduled
R. Guliak
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