TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Stukalov vs Serhii Hovorunets 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vladyslav Stukalov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111012119115911
Serhii Hovorunets
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hovorunets to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Serhii Hovorunets below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Hovorunets at 64.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 9–24 Serhii Hovorunets Vladyslav Stukalov has won 9 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hovorunets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-24 in 33
Hovorunets
Correct
gap of 15 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1177 vs Hovorunets 1261
Hovorunets
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 40% vs Hovorunets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 30% vs Hovorunets 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -1 · Hovorunets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Hovorunets) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hovorunets form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 2.50 / Hovorunets 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Hovorunets)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13172880
Stukalov2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 105 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back20% 27 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 82
Hovorunets1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 48 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov5wins
AwayHovorunets5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov100%4 of 4
AwayHovorunets83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov4Hovorunets6n = 10Hovorunets took 6 of 10
S2Stukalov5Hovorunets5n = 10split evenly
S3Stukalov3Hovorunets7n = 10Hovorunets took 7 of 10
S4Stukalov3Hovorunets1n = 4Stukalov took 3 of 4
S5Stukalov2Hovorunets1n = 3Stukalov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovHovorunetsS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.636.3−1.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovHovorunetsBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 831 vs 231 / 47549.8%48.6%414 / 831 vs 231 / 475Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HovorunetsStukalov 2.50/Hovorunets 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Hovorunets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hovorunets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov4011117113S. Hovorunets35691191
LSep 15 · 11:40V. Stukalov26412100S. Hovorunets371114123
LSep 8 · 17:00V. Stukalov199820S. Hovorunets331111113
WAug 19 · 11:00V. Stukalov331111113S. Hovorunets176920
LAug 18 · 05:28V. Stukalov197480S. Hovorunets331111113
WAug 5 · 14:00V. Stukalov50613128113S. Hovorunets521111101192
WAug 1 · 09:30V. Stukalov331111113S. Hovorunets219840
LJul 24 · 09:00V. Stukalov28131230S. Hovorunets401514113
WJul 8 · 09:00V. Stukalov54149911113S. Hovorunets49121111782
LJun 25 · 09:35V. Stukalov4461181182S. Hovorunets46116117113
V. Stukalov10
LSep 22 · 16:40S. Semenets1.731411113V. Stukalov2.0012720LSep 22 · 14:40V. Stukalov2.2057120D. Khavanskyi1.611111143WSep 22 · 13:10V. Stukalov2.101112113V. Varchenko1.6761090WSep 22 · 11:10V. Stukalov1.2211911133S. Osipov4.004119111LSep 20 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.388180M. Khalenko1.531111113LSep 20 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.251111113V. Stukalov3.756590LSep 20 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.108135101S. Semenets1.67111111123LSep 20 · 07:35D. Khavanskyi1.831111113V. Stukalov1.837740LSep 20 · 06:05V. Stukalov3.0051111942O. Mytsyk1.36118811113WSep 19 · 10:20V. Stukalov1.5711118133O. Stopin2.258811111
S. Hovorunets10
WSep 22 · 13:40S. Semenets1.6711971182S. Hovorunets2.10811119113LSep 22 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.671011881D. Khavanskyi2.1012811113LSep 16 · 12:50S. Semenets1.61911113113S. Hovorunets2.2011591152LSep 16 · 11:20S. Hovorunets1.5381211982D. Khavanskyi2.381110311113WSep 16 · 09:20V. Kondratenko1.737101161S. Hovorunets2.0011126113WSep 16 · 07:20Y. Korotin2.2511391262S. Hovorunets1.578111110113LSep 16 · 06:20V. Stukalov3.0011117113S. Hovorunets1.36691191LSep 15 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.006860S. Semenets1.731111113WSep 15 · 15:40O. Miklukha3.25117111162S. Hovorunets1.33811139113LSep 15 · 13:40Y. Korotin2.75138911123S. Hovorunets1.401111118102
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