TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ziakun vs Oleh Kurylenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Oleksandr Ziakun
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101315116911511
Oleh Kurylenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ziakun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 103 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Ziakun at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 53–71 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Ziakun has won 53 of their 124 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:50What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-71 in 124
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1575 vs Kurylenko 1512
Ziakun
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 80% vs Kurylenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 60% vs Kurylenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +2 · Kurylenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ziakun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurylenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 1.91 / Kurylenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ziakun)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172346
Ziakun1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 92 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back21% 31 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Kurylenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 156 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it89% 74 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun4wins
AwayKurylenko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKurylenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun50%2 of 4
AwayKurylenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun4Kurylenko6n = 10Kurylenko took 6 of 10
S2Ziakun5Kurylenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Ziakun4Kurylenko6n = 10Kurylenko took 6 of 10
S4Ziakun4Kurylenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Ziakun2Kurylenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunKurylenkoZ − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.040.8−2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 755 vs 496 / 100347.7%49.5%360 / 755 vs 496 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZiakunZiakun 1.91/Kurylenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ziakun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 09:00O. Ziakun47612711112O. Kurylenko521110117133
LSep 17 · 09:00O. Ziakun224990O. Kurylenko331111113
WSep 11 · 07:30O. Ziakun531181112113O. Kurylenko49131191062
LSep 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun26124371O. Kurylenko43101111113
LSep 3 · 07:30O. Ziakun33118771O. Kurylenko4181111113
LSep 2 · 09:00O. Ziakun38913881O. Kurylenko44111111113
WAug 31 · 06:00O. Ziakun45411811113O. Kurylenko4211811572
WAug 25 · 11:00O. Ziakun4011711113O. Kurylenko33911491
LAug 21 · 09:00O. Ziakun4371111772O. Kurylenko48116911113
WAug 19 · 07:30O. Ziakun331111113O. Kurylenko237970
O. Ziakun10
WSep 22 · 08:30O. Ziakun1.401211113S. Miroshnychenko2.7510490WSep 22 · 07:00O. Ziakun1.83811611113S. Maliuk1.8311711492LSep 22 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.00511591D. Kuzmenko1.7311811113WSep 20 · 10:30V. Tatarnykov1.338111112112O. Ziakun3.25112414133WSep 20 · 09:30O. Ziakun2.751114113M. Hubenko1.4091270WSep 20 · 08:30O. Ziakun2.50128118103O. Syksa1.50101171192LSep 20 · 07:00O. Ziakun3.751110831S. Aristarkhov1.2581211113LSep 20 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.10911491D. Kuzmenko1.6711411113WSep 18 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.6111127113O. Lyman2.209101171LSep 18 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.91612711112O. Kurylenko1.801110117133
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 22 · 07:30O. Lyman2.004560O. Kurylenko1.731111113WSep 22 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.4481311113S. Miroshnychenko2.631111171LSep 22 · 05:30S. Maliuk1.831111113O. Kurylenko1.835860WSep 21 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.801111113D. Kuzmenko1.918780WSep 21 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.61116861O. Kurylenko2.2071111113WSep 21 · 07:30O. Syksa1.61111111452O. Kurylenko2.20781311113LSep 21 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.8310101331S. Maliuk1.83121211113WSep 21 · 05:30O. Lyman2.00121111782O. Kurylenko1.73147911113LSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123WSep 18 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.91612711112O. Kurylenko1.801110117133
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