TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Lyman
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214117119711811
Oleh Kurylenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Kurylenko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Oleh Kurylenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Kurylenko at 54.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 36–52 Oleh Kurylenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 36 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-52 in 88
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1393 vs Kurylenko 1474
Kurylenko
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 20% vs Kurylenko 60%
Kurylenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 30% vs Kurylenko 60%
Kurylenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -1 · Kurylenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.00 / Kurylenko 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kurylenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166105
Lyman2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 61 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kurylenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it89% 73 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it79% 108 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman6wins
AwayKurylenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLyman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLyman75%6 of 8
AwayKurylenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman8Kurylenko2n = 10Lyman took 8 of 10
S2Lyman6Kurylenko4n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S3Lyman4Kurylenko6n = 10Kurylenko took 6 of 10
S4Lyman3Kurylenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Lyman1Kurylenko2n = 3Kurylenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanKurylenkoL − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.735.3+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanKurylenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 609 vs 492 / 99944%49.3%268 / 609 vs 492 / 999Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoLyman 2.00/Kurylenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2768130O. Kurylenko371111153
WSep 17 · 05:30O. Lyman4111118113O. Kurylenko33781171
LSep 11 · 11:30O. Lyman50811111192O. Kurylenko48114913113
WSep 10 · 05:30O. Lyman3911116113O. Kurylenko25611171
WSep 8 · 11:00O. Lyman571118134113O. Kurylenko54820111142
WSep 4 · 11:30O. Lyman331111113O. Kurylenko184860
LSep 3 · 05:30O. Lyman4311571192O. Kurylenko46411119113
WAug 25 · 09:00O. Lyman341112113O. Kurylenko1981010
LAug 19 · 11:30O. Lyman33118681O. Kurylenko3851111113
O. Lyman10
LSep 18 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.6111127113O. Lyman2.209101171WSep 18 · 09:30O. Lyman2.5012116133S. Maliuk1.5010911111LSep 18 · 08:30O. Lyman3.0096111192D. Kuzmenko1.36111176113LSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2.1068130O. Kurylenko1.671111153LSep 18 · 05:00O. Lyman4.33811561O. Syksa1.2011911113WSep 17 · 11:30O. Lyman3.75911119153M. Hubenko1.25114911132LSep 17 · 09:30O. Syksa1.179111111113O. Lyman4.5011461392LSep 17 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.571851012113O. Lyman2.251611121092LSep 17 · 06:30O. Lyman1.36911718122S. Miroshnychenko3.001181116143WSep 17 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.67781171O. Lyman2.1011118113
O. Kurylenko10
LSep 21 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.8310101331S. Maliuk1.83121211113LSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123WSep 18 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.91612711112O. Kurylenko1.801110117133WSep 18 · 08:00O. Kurylenko2.101411113O. Syksa1.6712570WSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2.1068130O. Kurylenko1.671111153LSep 18 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.83711491S. Maliuk1.8311611113WSep 17 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.4411117113S. Miroshnychenko2.63361141WSep 17 · 09:00O. Ziakun2.004990O. Kurylenko1.731111113WSep 17 · 08:00O. Kurylenko3.251111910153M. Hubenko1.33751112132LSep 17 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.67781171O. Lyman2.1011118113
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