TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142030
Played Sep 17Finished
Oleksandr Lyman
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111141199111513
Maksym Hubenko
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 78.6% is still 78.6%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
78.6%
78.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 103 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Maksym Hubenko at 78.6%
103 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 3–17 Maksym Hubenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 3 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:21What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Hubenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-17 in 20
Hubenko
Wrong
gap of 14 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1427 vs Hubenko 1689
Hubenko
Wrong
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 40% vs Hubenko 80%
Hubenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 40% vs Hubenko 80%
Hubenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman -3 · Hubenko +1
Lyman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Hubenko) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lyman form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 3.75 / Hubenko 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Hubenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142030
Lyman3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 58 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Hubenko1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 236 of 322
Up 2–0, closes it94% 118 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it83% 167 of 201
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman2wins
AwayHubenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLymann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHubenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman2Hubenko8n = 10Hubenko took 8 of 10
S2Lyman3Hubenko7n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S3Lyman6Hubenko4n = 10Lyman took 6 of 10
S4Lyman3Hubenko5n = 8Hubenko took 5 of 8
S5Lyman1Hubenko3n = 4Hubenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanHubenkoL − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.5−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime273 / 618 vs 563 / 105344.2%53.5%273 / 618 vs 563 / 1053Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoLyman 3.75/Hubenko 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.3%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 05:00O. Lyman50111012892M. Hubenko506121011113
LAug 26 · 10:00O. Lyman36681571M. Hubenko46111113113
LAug 25 · 10:30O. Lyman246990M. Hubenko331111113
WAug 20 · 06:00O. Lyman42111172113M. Hubenko4295111162
LAug 19 · 05:00O. Lyman357711101M. Hubenko4311119123
LJun 11 · 06:00O. Lyman228590M. Hubenko331111113
LJun 4 · 11:00O. Lyman355911101M. Hubenko4011116123
WMay 27 · 07:30O. Lyman4491113113M. Hubenko391191181
LMay 23 · 16:00O. Lyman551171114122M. Hubenko571311712143
LMay 19 · 05:00O. Lyman43611101152M. Hubenko42113125113
O. Lyman10
LSep 17 · 09:30O. Syksa1.179111111113O. Lyman4.5011461392LSep 17 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.571851012113O. Lyman2.251611121092LSep 17 · 06:30O. Lyman1.36911718122S. Miroshnychenko3.001181116143WSep 17 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.67781171O. Lyman2.1011118113WSep 15 · 11:30O. Lyman1.281111133V. Ziakun3.5077110WSep 15 · 09:30S. Maliuk1.501171091O. Lyman2.5051112113LSep 15 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.611112133O. Lyman2.20910110LSep 15 · 06:30O. Lyman3.4071371152D. Kuzmenko1.301111119113WSep 15 · 05:30S. Miroshnychenko3.00912991O. Lyman1.36111011113LSep 11 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.61114913113O. Lyman2.20811111192
M. Hubenko10
WSep 17 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.17111110113S. Miroshnychenko4.50481211LSep 17 · 08:00O. Kurylenko3.251111910153M. Hubenko1.33751112132WSep 17 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.6335130M. Hubenko1.441111153WSep 17 · 05:00O. Syksa2.2511911242M. Hubenko1.57711711113WSep 16 · 10:30O. Syksa2.50121315562M. Hubenko1.5010111711113WSep 16 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.361111133O. Kurylenko3.0064110WSep 16 · 08:30M. Hubenko1.368121111113D. Kuzmenko3.0011145232WSep 16 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.5011115113A. Vasylets2.50491191LSep 16 · 05:00M. Hubenko1.44114471S. Maliuk2.6351111113WSep 14 · 10:30M. Hubenko1.441111113D. Prylepa2.633990
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