TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleh Kurylenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmitro Kuzmenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Kurylenko above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Dmitro Kuzmenko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kurylenko 96–67 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 67 of their 163 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:39What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kurylenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
96-67 in 163
Kurylenko
Correct
gap of 29 in 163, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurylenko 1495 vs Kuzmenko 1500
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurylenko 60% vs Kuzmenko 20%
Kurylenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurylenko 70% vs Kuzmenko 40%
Kurylenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurylenko +2 · Kuzmenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurylenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurylenko 1.80 / Kuzmenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurylenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166088
Kurylenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it89% 73 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it79% 108 of 136
Kuzmenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 107 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back18% 31 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurylenko4wins
AwayKuzmenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurylenko60%3 of 5
AwayKuzmenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurylenko5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurylenko4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S3Kurylenko5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurylenko3Kuzmenko4n = 7Kuzmenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurylenkoKuzmenkoKurylenko − KuzmenkoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.434.5+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurylenkoKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 999 vs 389 / 93449.4%41.7%493 / 999 vs 389 / 934Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurylenkoKurylenko 1.80/Kuzmenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurylenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurylenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 06:30O. Kurylenko26511551D. Kuzmenko4211911113
WSep 14 · 05:30O. Kurylenko3911611113D. Kuzmenko30711571
LSep 11 · 05:30O. Kurylenko2511770D. Kuzmenko351311113
WSep 7 · 05:30O. Kurylenko331111113D. Kuzmenko185670
LSep 3 · 06:30O. Kurylenko48119711102D. Kuzmenko42511113123
WSep 2 · 11:00O. Kurylenko331111113D. Kuzmenko142930
LAug 27 · 05:30O. Kurylenko30391171D. Kuzmenko3711114113
LAug 25 · 05:30O. Kurylenko399711121D. Kuzmenko3611110143
WAug 24 · 11:30O. Kurylenko53914711123D. Kuzmenko511112117102
LAug 21 · 05:30O. Kurylenko28114941D. Kuzmenko4071111113
O. Kurylenko10
WSep 21 · 09:30D. Prylepa1.61116861O. Kurylenko2.2071111113WSep 21 · 07:30O. Syksa1.61111111452O. Kurylenko2.20781311113LSep 21 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.8310101331S. Maliuk1.83121211113WSep 21 · 05:30O. Lyman2.00121111782O. Kurylenko1.73147911113LSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123WSep 18 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.91612711112O. Kurylenko1.801110117133WSep 18 · 08:00O. Kurylenko2.101411113O. Syksa1.6712570WSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2.1068130O. Kurylenko1.671111153LSep 18 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.83711491S. Maliuk1.8311611113WSep 17 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.4411117113S. Miroshnychenko2.63361141
D. Kuzmenko10
LSep 21 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko1.83911491S. Maliuk1.8311911113LSep 21 · 08:00O. Lyman2.7512118113D. Kuzmenko1.401071191WSep 21 · 06:00O. Syksa1.6785111162D. Kuzmenko2.10111184113LSep 21 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.57118811113D. Kuzmenko2.2561111772LSep 20 · 11:30M. Hubenko1.3611111211113D. Kuzmenko3.0013514412LSep 20 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko2.258570O. Syksa1.571111113WSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113LSep 20 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.3311811113D. Kuzmenko3.25711971WSep 20 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.10911491D. Kuzmenko1.6711411113WSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123
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