TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Lyman
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210117811119––
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:40 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeDmitro Kuzmenko to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Lyman above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Dmitro Kuzmenko at 70.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Lyman 24–46 Dmitro Kuzmenko Oleksandr Lyman has won 24 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kuzmenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-46 in 70
Kuzmenko
Wrong
gap of 22 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lyman 1415 vs Kuzmenko 1513
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lyman 40% vs Kuzmenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lyman 30% vs Kuzmenko 60%
Kuzmenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lyman +1 · Kuzmenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmenko) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLyman 2.75 / Kuzmenko 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166087
Lyman2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 61 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kuzmenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 98 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it80% 74 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLyman2wins
AwayKuzmenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLymann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKuzmenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lyman2Kuzmenko8n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S2Lyman4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S3Lyman3Kuzmenko7n = 10Kuzmenko took 7 of 10
S4Lyman4Kuzmenko3n = 7Lyman took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLymanKuzmenkoL − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.939.1−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLymanKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 607 vs 389 / 93344%41.7%267 / 607 vs 389 / 933Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoLyman 2.75/Kuzmenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lyman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 08:00O. Lyman4212118113D. Kuzmenko371071191
LSep 18 · 08:30O. Lyman4696111192D. Kuzmenko46111176113
LSep 15 · 06:30O. Lyman4371371152D. Kuzmenko531111119113
LSep 11 · 08:00O. Lyman30861151D. Kuzmenko4211119113
LSep 3 · 11:00O. Lyman198560D. Kuzmenko331111113
LSep 1 · 05:00O. Lyman30118291D. Kuzmenko3631111113
LAug 27 · 07:30O. Lyman2511770D. Kuzmenko351311113
WAug 25 · 07:30O. Lyman3741111113D. Kuzmenko34118961
LAug 22 · 12:00O. Lyman248880D. Kuzmenko331111113
LJun 17 · 09:30O. Lyman33711691D. Kuzmenko4211911113
O. Lyman10
LSep 21 · 09:00O. Syksa1.20111112113O. Lyman4.334131031WSep 21 · 07:00D. Prylepa1.33310111162O. Lyman3.25111259113LSep 21 · 05:30O. Lyman2.00121111782O. Kurylenko1.73147911113LSep 18 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.6111127113O. Lyman2.209101171WSep 18 · 09:30O. Lyman2.5012116133S. Maliuk1.5010911111LSep 18 · 08:30O. Lyman3.0096111192D. Kuzmenko1.36111176113LSep 18 · 07:00O. Lyman2.1068130O. Kurylenko1.671111153LSep 18 · 05:00O. Lyman4.33811561O. Syksa1.2011911113WSep 17 · 11:30O. Lyman3.75911119153M. Hubenko1.25114911132LSep 17 · 09:30O. Syksa1.179111111113O. Lyman4.5011461392
D. Kuzmenko10
WSep 21 · 06:00O. Syksa1.6785111162D. Kuzmenko2.10111184113LSep 21 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.57118811113D. Kuzmenko2.2561111772LSep 20 · 11:30M. Hubenko1.3611111211113D. Kuzmenko3.0013514412LSep 20 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko2.258570O. Syksa1.571111113WSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113LSep 20 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.3311811113D. Kuzmenko3.25711971WSep 20 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.10911491D. Kuzmenko1.6711411113WSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123WSep 18 · 10:00O. Syksa1.619740D. Kuzmenko2.201111113WSep 18 · 08:30O. Lyman3.0096111192D. Kuzmenko1.36111176113
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