TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Dmitro Kuzmenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119411911––
Serhii Maliuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmitro Kuzmenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmitro Kuzmenko above · Serhii Maliuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dmitro Kuzmenko at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dmitro Kuzmenko 38–37 Serhii Maliuk Serhii Maliuk has won 37 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-37 in 75
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1513 vs Maliuk 1474
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 20% vs Maliuk 40%
Maliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 50% vs Maliuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko -1 · Maliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kuzmenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maliuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 1.83 / Maliuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166279
Kuzmenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Maliuk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko7wins
AwayMaliuk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko100%5 of 5
AwayMaliuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kuzmenko8Maliuk2n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S3Kuzmenko5Maliuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Kuzmenko3Maliuk3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoMaliukK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.632.2+3.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoMaliukBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 933 vs 258 / 52441.7%49.2%389 / 933 vs 258 / 524Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoKuzmenko 1.83/Maliuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Maliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 06:30D. Kuzmenko136430S. Maliuk331111113
LSep 16 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko28471161S. Maliuk3911116113
WSep 15 · 08:30D. Kuzmenko331111113S. Maliuk225890
WSep 14 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko4011117113S. Maliuk30851161
WSep 11 · 07:00D. Kuzmenko351112123S. Maliuk26610100
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Kuzmenko331111113S. Maliuk179440
WSep 3 · 08:30D. Kuzmenko43511511113S. Maliuk3911711462
WSep 1 · 06:00D. Kuzmenko4291111113S. Maliuk24119131
LAug 27 · 09:30D. Kuzmenko4211118121S. Maliuk4713911143
WAug 25 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko471211103113S. Maliuk45107121152
D. Kuzmenko10
LSep 21 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.801111113D. Kuzmenko1.918780LSep 21 · 08:00O. Lyman2.7512118113D. Kuzmenko1.401071191WSep 21 · 06:00O. Syksa1.6785111162D. Kuzmenko2.10111184113LSep 21 · 05:00D. Prylepa1.57118811113D. Kuzmenko2.2561111772LSep 20 · 11:30M. Hubenko1.3611111211113D. Kuzmenko3.0013514412LSep 20 · 10:00D. Kuzmenko2.258570O. Syksa1.571111113WSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov1.3611671182D. Kuzmenko3.00711115113LSep 20 · 06:00V. Tatarnykov1.3311811113D. Kuzmenko3.25711971WSep 20 · 05:00O. Ziakun2.10911491D. Kuzmenko1.6711411113WSep 18 · 11:00O. Kurylenko1.8078100D. Kuzmenko1.911111123
S. Maliuk10
WSep 21 · 11:00O. Lyman2.381396101S. Maliuk1.53111111123LSep 21 · 08:30D. Prylepa1.671211113S. Maliuk2.1010560WSep 21 · 06:30O. Kurylenko1.8310101331S. Maliuk1.83121211113WSep 21 · 04:30O. Syksa1.6771050S. Maliuk2.101112113LSep 18 · 11:30S. Maliuk2.204111110112O. Syksa1.61118912133LSep 18 · 09:30O. Lyman2.5012116133S. Maliuk1.5010911111LSep 18 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.8051112113S. Maliuk1.911161081WSep 18 · 06:30S. Maliuk2.001111113D. Kuzmenko1.736430WSep 18 · 05:30O. Kurylenko1.83711491S. Maliuk1.8311611113WSep 16 · 11:30O. Kurylenko1.83121178122S. Maliuk1.831091111143
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