TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Serhii Balabei
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101174111311––
Roman Horokh
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSerhii Balabei above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11
79 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Balabei 124–217 Roman Horokh Serhii Balabei has won 124 of their 341 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Horokh beat Balabei 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalabei 1.83 / Horokh 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horokh)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13171932
Balabei1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Horokh1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalabei5wins
AwayHorokh5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalabei75%3 of 4
AwayHorokh66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balabei4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S2Balabei5Horokh5n = 10split evenly
S3Balabei2Horokh8n = 10Horokh took 8 of 10
S4Balabei6Horokh1n = 7Balabei took 6 of 7
S5Balabei2Horokh2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalabeiHorokhB − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.4−1.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalabeiHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime508 / 1002 vs 690 / 122250.7%56.5%508 / 1002 vs 690 / 1222Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhBalabei 1.83/Horokh 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Balabei won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 15:00S. Balabei195860R. Horokh331111113
LSep 16 · 15:00S. Balabei3711115462R. Horokh42631111113
LSep 15 · 15:00S. Balabei214890R. Horokh331111113
WSep 14 · 17:33S. Balabei551311911113R. Horokh4215511562
WSep 14 · 15:00S. Balabei5417136183R. Horokh53151111161
LSep 11 · 12:00S. Balabei219750R. Horokh331111113
LAug 31 · 12:00S. Balabei50513111292R. Horokh531115610113
WAug 29 · 08:30S. Balabei3911611113R. Horokh31611771
WAug 28 · 15:00S. Balabei46611711113R. Horokh4611811972
WAug 26 · 10:04S. Balabei47151110113R. Horokh381391241
S. Balabei10
LSep 21 · 16:00S. Balabei7.008760S. Ponomarenko1.081111113LSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860LSep 21 · 14:00S. Kushnirenko3.25101111113S. Balabei1.33124491WSep 21 · 12:30D. Yurkov2.381112121542S. Balabei1.537141413113LSep 18 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko3.2511118113S. Balabei1.33881121WSep 18 · 15:00S. Balabei2.75913137113V. Komar1.401111111162LSep 18 · 13:30S. Balabei1.50117771D. Kryshtal2.5021111113LSep 18 · 12:00S. Balabei7.003260S. Ponomarenko1.081111113WSep 16 · 17:29S. Balabei1.401111137113S. Kushnirenko2.75513111192WSep 16 · 16:00S. Balabei1.1711112113S. Kiilo4.50551191
R. Horokh10
LSep 21 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501111113R. Horokh1.509580WSep 21 · 15:00R. Horokh1.831111113S. Balabei1.835860WSep 21 · 13:30R. Horokh1.611111113D. Yurkov2.208970LSep 21 · 12:00R. Horokh4.501591191S. Ponomarenko1.1717118113LSep 16 · 16:59D. Kryshtal1.9111513113R. Horokh1.805111161LSep 16 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko2.501219113R. Horokh1.50101750WSep 16 · 15:00R. Horokh1.91631111113S. Balabei1.8011115462LSep 16 · 13:30R. Horokh1.4411791172D. Kryshtal2.63911116113WSep 16 · 12:00R. Horokh1.141111113S. Kiilo5.004760LSep 15 · 17:28S. Ponomarenko1.171113123R. Horokh4.50911100
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