TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Mitas vs Lukasz Pietraszko 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13151210116118––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 86 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 57.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 5–4 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mitas beat Pietraszko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mitas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1665 vs Pietraszko 1620
Mitas
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 80% vs Pietraszko 60%
Mitas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 80% vs Pietraszko 60%
Mitas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +1 · Pietraszko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mitas) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 1.80 / Pietraszko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mitas)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13170780
Mitas1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite62% won 58 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 44 of 52
Pietraszko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 93 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back18% 27 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMitas5wins
AwayPietraszko4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMitas leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas75%3 of 4
AwayPietraszko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas4Pietraszko5n = 9Pietraszko took 5 of 9
S2Mitas4Pietraszko5n = 9Pietraszko took 5 of 9
S3Mitas2Pietraszko7n = 9Pietraszko took 7 of 9
S4Mitas4Pietraszko1n = 5Mitas took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricMitasPietraszkoM − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match33.735.4−1.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 257 vs 441 / 87247.1%50.6%121 / 257 vs 441 / 872Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitasMitas 1.80/Pietraszko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mitas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 20:30J. Mitas4011117113L. Pietraszko32871161
WAug 2 · 22:35J. Mitas4071111113L. Pietraszko33115981
WAug 2 · 17:40J. Mitas49119711113L. Pietraszko4681111972
LJun 15 · 02:20J. Mitas259790L. Pietraszko331111113
LJun 14 · 23:55J. Mitas35116991L. Pietraszko4291111113
LJun 14 · 17:30J. Mitas1510410L. Pietraszko341211113
WMay 26 · 01:05J. Mitas42411511113L. Pietraszko4011411862
WMay 25 · 22:40J. Mitas341111123L. Pietraszko2486100
LMay 25 · 20:35J. Mitas2331190L. Pietraszko351113113
J. Mitas10
WSep 23 · 24:10J. Mitas1.221111133K. Rudomina4.0084110WSep 22 · 21:50J. Mitas1.9111913123K. Staszczyk1.8051111101LSep 22 · 21:25J. Mitas1.831181011102J. Chmielowski1.83711125123WSep 22 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.91871161J. Mitas1.8011117113WSep 22 · 19:15J. Mitas1.531111113K. Rudomina2.385650WSep 22 · 18:05P. Blocho2.759860J. Mitas1.401111113LSep 22 · 16:55J. Chmielowski1.8371111113J. Mitas1.83116771WSep 22 · 15:25M. Minda2.507630J. Mitas1.501111113WSep 22 · 24:10J. Mitas1.7311711133M. Kolek2.007118111WSep 21 · 23:20J. Mitas1.361111123K. Kostyk3.0097100
L. Pietraszko10
WSep 22 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.5312870L. Pietraszko2.381411113LSep 22 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.00411431J. Chmielowski1.7311911113WSep 22 · 21:00K. Rudomina2.1011111071L. Pietraszko1.6713412113LSep 22 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.91871161J. Mitas1.8011117113WSep 22 · 18:50L. Pietraszko1.57111199143P. Blocho2.25551111122LSep 22 · 17:40L. Pietraszko2.00114731J. Chmielowski1.7391111113WSep 22 · 16:05L. Pietraszko1.731112911113M. Minda2.00131011542WSep 22 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.57116118113K. Rudomina2.2521191132LSep 20 · 23:20K. Rudomina2.2011711123L. Pietraszko1.616113101WSep 20 · 22:35P. Blocho2.107980L. Pietraszko1.671111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.