TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Niemiec vs Piotr Przewlocki 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Rafal Niemiec
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116115––––
Piotr Przewlocki
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Niemiec above · Piotr Przewlocki below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Rafal Niemiec at 56.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Niemiec 4–8 Piotr Przewlocki Rafal Niemiec has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Niemiec beat Przewlocki 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:34What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Przewlocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Przewlocki
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1432 vs Przewlocki 1290
Niemiec
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 80% vs Przewlocki 20%
Niemiec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 70% vs Przewlocki 30%
Niemiec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +2 · Przewlocki -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Przewlocki) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Przewlocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.91 / Przewlocki 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Przewlocki)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13169862
Niemiec1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Przewlocki1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 131 of 221
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it76% 85 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNiemiec4wins
AwayPrzewlocki6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPrzewlocki leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiemiec42.9%3 of 7
AwayPrzewlocki66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec7Przewlocki3n = 10Niemiec took 7 of 10
S2Niemiec4Przewlocki6n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S3Niemiec5Przewlocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Niemiec4Przewlocki5n = 9Przewlocki took 5 of 9
S5Niemiec2Przewlocki4n = 6Przewlocki took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNiemiecPrzewlockiN − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.643.1+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecPrzewlockiBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 272 vs 521 / 109561.4%47.6%167 / 272 vs 521 / 1095Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrzewlockiNiemiec 1.91/Przewlocki 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Przewlocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 14:20R. Niemiec331111113P. Przewlocki187650
WSep 22 · 08:10R. Niemiec4211146113P. Przewlocki375121191
LSep 7 · 13:30R. Niemiec398111191P. Przewlocki3911134113
WSep 7 · 07:20R. Niemiec47911115113P. Przewlocki4511961182
LAug 26 · 12:40R. Niemiec4889111192P. Przewlocki44111165113
LAug 26 · 06:30R. Niemiec53119912122P. Przewlocki559111110143
LAug 5 · 13:05R. Niemiec47111110872P. Przewlocki47761211113
LAug 5 · 06:55R. Niemiec39139981P. Przewlocki44111111113
LJul 3 · 15:55R. Niemiec531110139102P. Przewlocki537121111123
WJul 3 · 09:55R. Niemiec551110911143P. Przewlocki49712117122
R. Niemiec10
WSep 22 · 12:40O. Jadach1.50111110272R. Niemiec2.50741211113WSep 22 · 11:50P. Brozek1.8012611792R. Niemiec1.911011711113LSep 22 · 11:00R. Niemiec1.8391111882W. Urban1.83117911113WSep 22 · 09:50R. Niemiec1.67611711133M. Skuril2.10115114112WSep 22 · 08:10R. Niemiec1.6111146113P. Przewlocki2.205121191LSep 22 · 06:30O. Jadach1.611111113R. Niemiec2.208570WSep 22 · 05:40M. Skuril1.91861491R. Niemiec1.80111112113WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec1.911181311113W. Urban1.80131111882WSep 22 · 03:50R. Niemiec2.10117119123P. Brozek1.67611711102LSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982
P. Przewlocki10
LSep 22 · 13:30W. Urban1.57711911123P. Przewlocki2.25118115102LSep 22 · 11:25O. Jadach1.61117511123P. Przewlocki2.20311113102WSep 22 · 10:35M. Skuril2.001110681P. Przewlocki1.7331211113LSep 22 · 09:00P. Brozek1.6112711113P. Przewlocki2.201011971LSep 22 · 08:10R. Niemiec1.6111146113P. Przewlocki2.205121191WSep 22 · 07:20W. Urban1.618914111P. Przewlocki2.20111112133LSep 22 · 05:15O. Jadach1.731111117113P. Przewlocki2.0013651142LSep 22 · 04:30P. Brozek1.6771111113P. Przewlocki2.10115961LSep 22 · 03:00M. Skuril2.0011119113P. Przewlocki1.73661151WSep 21 · 15:30J. Pelka1.90991191P. Przewlocki1.7511112113
Upcoming Matches
R. Niemiec
Nothing scheduled
P. Przewlocki
Sep 23 · 03:50P. Przewlocki2.25W. Urban1.57—Sep 23 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.38S. Szostok1.53—Sep 23 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.57P. Slosarczyk2.25—Sep 23 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.00P. Polok1.73—Sep 23 · 08:10P. Przewlocki2.20K. Slawinski1.61—Sep 23 · 09:50P. Przewlocki1.57P. Slosarczyk2.25—Sep 23 · 11:00P. Przewlocki2.38S. Szostok1.53—Sep 23 · 11:50P. Przewlocki1.91W. Urban1.80—Sep 23 · 14:20P. Przewlocki2.20K. Slawinski1.61—
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