TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Wagner vs Vlastimil Kolar 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711116711911
Vlastimil Kolar
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVlastimil Kolar to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Vlastimil Kolar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vlastimil Kolar at 54.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 1–6 Vlastimil Kolar Richard Wagner has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:14What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Kolar
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1695 vs Kolar 1675
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Kolar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Kolar 30%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -2 · Kolar +3
Kolar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 2.20 / Kolar 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Kolar)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13169818
Wagner2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 32 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Kolar1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it77% 26 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeWagner1wins
AwayKolar6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderKolar leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner33.3%1 of 3
AwayKolar100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner3Kolar4n = 7Kolar took 4 of 7
S2Wagner2Kolar5n = 7Kolar took 5 of 7
S3Wagner1Kolar6n = 7Kolar took 6 of 7
S4Wagner2Kolar3n = 5Kolar took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricWagnerKolarW − KBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match33.739.6−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 214 vs 96 / 18753.3%51.3%114 / 214 vs 96 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 2.20/Kolar 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 28 · 21:30R. Wagner3711411113V. Kolar32611871
LJul 28 · 18:30R. Wagner189450V. Kolar331111113
LJul 28 · 17:28R. Wagner33116791V. Kolar4291111113
LJul 28 · 14:00R. Wagner388121081V. Kolar44111012113
LJul 25 · 14:00R. Wagner351139121V. Kolar4481111143
LJul 25 · 13:28R. Wagner501011811102V. Kolar49127117123
LJul 25 · 10:30R. Wagner259790V. Kolar331111113
R. Wagner10
LSep 22 · 11:00R. Wagner1.578470J. Zuzanek2.251111113LSep 22 · 10:00M. Regner2.501111113R. Wagner1.508690WSep 22 · 09:30J. Louda2.0071111692R. Wagner1.73112911113WSep 22 · 08:00J. Zuzanek2.00712861R. Wagner1.73111011113WSep 22 · 07:00J. Louda2.00109111182R. Wagner1.73121189113LSep 22 · 06:30R. Wagner1.536111171S. Kasnik2.3811713113WSep 17 · 12:58J. Zuzanek1.809111171R. Wagner1.9111137113LSep 17 · 12:30R. Wagner1.738960J. Zuzanek2.001111113LSep 17 · 11:00R. Wagner1.858640M. Sychra1.851111113WSep 17 · 10:00R. Urbaniec1.57311741R. Wagner2.2511811113
V. Kolar10
WSep 22 · 13:30V. Kolar1.771111113J. Zuzanek1.931190WSep 22 · 11:30V. Kolar1.8014116113M. Regner1.911261191WSep 22 · 10:30J. Zuzanek1.571110941V. Kolar2.2571211113WSep 3 · 20:58J. Louda1.678750V. Kolar2.101111113LSep 3 · 20:30J. Louda1.8011711113V. Kolar1.91611761LSep 3 · 19:30V. Kolar1.831011651R. Rose1.8312711113LSep 3 · 18:30M. Sychra2.003111014113V. Kolar1.73118121272LSep 3 · 16:58O. Svacha1.401111113V. Kolar2.754370LSep 3 · 16:30O. Svacha1.57111011113V. Kolar2.25312341LSep 3 · 15:30V. Kolar2.00691381J. Kanera1.73111111113
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