TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Patrik Pycha
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311112116––––
Marek Chlebecek
Away
2.19
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:15 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timePatrik Pycha to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Pycha above · Marek Chlebecek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Patrik Pycha at 63.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Pycha 10–9 Marek Chlebecek Marek Chlebecek has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pycha beat Chlebecek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (59%)
Pycha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pycha 1669 vs Chlebecek 1532
Pycha
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pycha 100% vs Chlebecek 40%
Pycha
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pycha 80% vs Chlebecek 20%
Pycha
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pycha +6 · Chlebecek +2
Pycha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Pycha) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pycha form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPycha 1.53 / Chlebecek 2.19
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Pycha)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13167420
Pycha1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 70 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Chlebecek2.19
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back29% 11 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePycha5wins
AwayChlebecek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePycha62.5%5 of 8
AwayChlebecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pycha8Chlebecek2n = 10Pycha took 8 of 10
S2Pycha5Chlebecek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pycha7Chlebecek3n = 10Pycha took 7 of 10
S4Pycha3Chlebecek4n = 7Chlebecek took 4 of 7
S5Pycha0Chlebecek3n = 3Chlebecek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPychaChlebecekP − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.2+1.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPychaChlebecekBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 954 vs 113 / 24052.7%47.1%503 / 954 vs 113 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PychaPycha 1.53/Chlebecek 2.19
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Pycha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pycha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 23:30P. Pycha4011611123M. Chlebecek368117101
LAug 8 · 02:00P. Pycha301041151M. Chlebecek4112117113
WJul 24 · 01:30P. Pycha331111113M. Chlebecek195860
WJul 11 · 24:30P. Pycha341112113M. Chlebecek2581070
WJul 6 · 23:00P. Pycha341112113M. Chlebecek2591060
WJun 30 · 02:58P. Pycha4111712113M. Chlebecek327111041
LJun 30 · 02:00P. Pycha4213761152M. Chlebecek501111116113
LMay 15 · 23:00P. Pycha4011116932M. Chlebecek44381111113
LMay 5 · 02:00P. Pycha31611591M. Chlebecek3611311113
LMar 7 · 11:30P. Pycha4916911672M. Chlebecek541411711113
P. Pycha10
WSep 21 · 01:30P. Pycha1.571111113D. Tuma2.259690WSep 21 · 24:30M. Sobisek2.004850P. Pycha1.731111113WSep 20 · 23:30M. Chlebecek2.208117101P. Pycha1.6111611123WSep 20 · 22:30P. Pycha1.801181110113M. Vizek1.9191151292WSep 19 · 02:59J. Holubec1.7341040P. Pycha2.001112113WSep 19 · 02:00P. Pycha1.57101111113D. Tuma2.25125911LSep 19 · 01:00P. Pycha2.256950J. Hradecky1.571111113LSep 19 · 24:00M. Sychra1.441111113P. Pycha2.636950WSep 18 · 22:30J. Holubec1.6789110P. Pycha2.101111133WSep 15 · 03:30P. Pycha1.601111123D. Tuma2.2055100
M. Chlebecek10
WSep 21 · 02:30D. Tuma2.105770M. Chlebecek1.671111113WSep 21 · 01:00M. Vizek2.109129101M. Chlebecek1.67111011123LSep 20 · 23:30M. Chlebecek2.208117101P. Pycha1.6111611123LSep 20 · 22:00M. Chlebecek1.671312411112M. Sobisek2.1011101113133LSep 20 · 08:59M. Regner1.571111113M. Chlebecek2.257680LSep 20 · 08:00M. Nohejl1.831311113M. Chlebecek1.8311560LSep 20 · 07:00M. Regner1.731111113M. Chlebecek2.006780LSep 20 · 06:30M. Chlebecek1.8328110J. Holubec1.831111133LSep 19 · 21:15R. Pacha—11912113M. Chlebecek—7111071LSep 19 · 20:30R. Pacha1.5311811113M. Chlebecek2.38611861
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