TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Anatolii Lievshin
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611711––––
Illia Hermakivskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Hermakivskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Lievshin above · Illia Hermakivskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Illia Hermakivskyi at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Lievshin 0–1 Illia Hermakivskyi Anatolii Lievshin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hermakivskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lievshin 1715 vs Hermakivskyi 1683
Lievshin
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lievshin 40% vs Hermakivskyi 80%
Hermakivskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lievshin 40% vs Hermakivskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lievshin -1 · Hermakivskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hermakivskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hermakivskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLievshin 1.91 / Hermakivskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hermakivskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166401
Lievshin1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 43 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Hermakivskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLievshin0wins
AwayHermakivskyi1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderHermakivskyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLievshinHermakivskyiL − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.055.0−13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLievshinHermakivskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 340 vs 28 / 6255.9%45.2%190 / 340 vs 28 / 62Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HermakivskyiLievshin 1.91/Hermakivskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hermakivskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hermakivskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 15 · 15:00A. Lievshin42412121132I. Hermakivskyi5511101013113
A. Lievshin10
LSep 21 · 15:40O. Kolbasenko1.611111113A. Lievshin2.207250WSep 21 · 13:40I. Fedoryshyn2.0046100A. Lievshin1.731111123WSep 21 · 12:40A. Lievshin1.301111113A. Hrabskyi3.405650LSep 21 · 11:40O. Seliuchenko2.201111133A. Lievshin1.6149110LSep 18 · 17:40I. Fedoryshyn2.38118513113A. Lievshin1.53811111162LSep 18 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.28111111892A. Hrabskyi3.50913611113WSep 18 · 14:10A. Yurkov2.10131011352A. Lievshin1.671112811113LSep 18 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.531111113A. Lievshin2.386590LSep 16 · 12:05O. Gavryshko1.83911611113A. Lievshin1.8311411972WSep 16 · 10:35A. Lievshin1.2811711113A. Hrabskyi3.50411451
I. Hermakivskyi10
WSep 21 · 16:10I. Hermakivskyi1.61118911113A. Hrabskyi2.2051111862WSep 21 · 14:10O. Seliuchenko2.75911481I. Hermakivskyi1.4011811113LSep 21 · 12:10I. Fedoryshyn1.8311611113I. Hermakivskyi1.83911881WSep 21 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko2.251611101I. Hermakivskyi1.5711119123WSep 17 · 18:30O. Ivchuk1.839840I. Hermakivskyi1.831111113LSep 17 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.3611119113I. Hermakivskyi3.00811191LSep 17 · 16:00O. Zhurba1.401111113I. Hermakivskyi2.756660LSep 17 · 14:00O. Pavlyuk1.801111113I. Hermakivskyi1.914470LSep 17 · 12:00D. Neborak1.57115712113I. Hermakivskyi2.25811111092LSep 15 · 18:00I. Hermakivskyi1.40941171V. Marushchak2.7511114113
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